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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 292303

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea and 
Sierra Leone near 09.5N13W and continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ then
continues from 06N18W to 02.5N37W. A surface trough is along 40W 
extending from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed from 00N to 06N between 10W and 19W, and 
from 02N to 08N between 28W and 43W. Scattered moderate 
convection is found from 06N to 11N between 47W and 56W.


A cold front has exited the basin in recent hours and extends 
from the central Bahamas across NW Cuba to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula to coastal sections of the Mexican state of Campeche.  
Behind this boundary, strong high pressure is building across the
Gulf of Mexico resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions,
except for scattered moderate to heavy showers along the Mexican
coastal waters of the Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer 
satellite data and surface observations showed fresh to 
occasionally strong N-NE winds behind the frontal boundary, mainly
South of 27N. The strongest winds were found offshore Veracruz. 
Seas of 6-9 ft prevail behind the front to 25N, with the highest 
seas occurring offshore Veracruz. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will drift southeast 
and dissipate across the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula
through Tue. High pressure will build across the Gulf in the wake
of the front. As the high pressure slides eastward, southerly 
return flow will set-up across the NW Gulf by mid-week.


Convergence of NE trade winds along with divergent flow aloft 
east of a weak mid/upper level trough over Nicaragua are combining
to support a large area of showers and thunderstorms, south of 14N
and west of 80W to coastal portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and 
Panama. Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicated 
fresh to locally strong trades in the south-central and SW 
Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring within 60 nm of 
the Nicaraguan coast. Seas of 4-7 ft are also found in the region.
A Gulf of Mexico cold front has moved across NW Cuba and into the
NW Caribbean and across the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan
Peninsula to Cozumel. A band of overcast skies and scattered
moderate showers prevails within 90 nm south of the front. Elsewhere,
fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker trades and
seas of 1-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, the front will drift southward overnight and
dissipate on Tue. This will allow moderate to fresh N to NE winds
to build behind the front tonight. Otherwise, moderate to fresh 
NE to E winds will persist over all but the NW Caribbean through 
mid week, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, mainly at night.
High pressure building north of the area will slightly enhance 
trade winds across the Caribbean later in the week. Meanwhile, 
moderate N to NE swell will continue across the Atlantic waters 
east of 70W and through the NE Caribbean passages through tonight


A cold front extends from 31N66W through the central Bahamas to
NW coast of Cuba along 81W and across the Yucatan Channel. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 28N68W to 20N72W. Scattered moderate 
convection is found east of the trough to 62W and north of 26N.
Scattered weak to moderate convection is seen within 90 nm east 
of the front to the north of 26N. Recent scatterometer satellite 
data depicted fresh to strong westerly winds behind the frontal 
boundary, with the strongest winds occurring north of 29N. Seas of
6-9 ft are found behind the frontal boundary north of 27N. 

Over the Central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 28N41W 
to 22N43W and a few clusters of moderate tstorms noted near the 
northern end of the trough. A strong 1039 mb high pressure center
near the Azores and lower pressures over western Africa allow for
a moderate pressure gradient, resulting in a large area of fresh 
to strong anticyclonic winds east of 40W and north of 05N. The 
strongest winds are occurring east of 30W and north of 14N, 
including the waters surrounding the Canary Islands. Seas of 8-12 
ft are present east of 45W, with the highest seas occurring north 
of the Cabo Verde Islands. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather 
conditions, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and 
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by 
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at

For the forecast west of 65W, the previously-mentioned cold front
will move quickly SE across the forecast waters, and reach from 
31N65W to eastern Cuba by tonight. High pressure will settle 
across the forecast area in the wake of the front, and dominate 
the SW N Atlantic through Fri.