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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 201039

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from
01N-15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection
is noted in the wave's environment at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 15N41W to 
01N42W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This position is well depicted by
model guidance and with latest scatterometer data. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N between 39W-42W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72W 
from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Most recent ASCAT pass 
continues to depict a surface trough with this wave. Scattered 
showers are noted from 10N-18N between 67W-78W.


The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N20W to 08N25W, then continues W of a tropical 
wave from 07N28W to 06N40W. The ITCZ resumes once again W of 
another tropical wave near 05N44W to 05N52W. Aside from the 
convection related to the tropical waves described above, 
scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm N of the ITCZ 
between 30W-39W. 


A cold front extends SW across northeast Gulf from 27N82W to 
25N85W. A surface trough extends from 25N84W to 22N87W with 
scattered moderate convection. A 1011 mb surface high is located 
near 28N89W keeping fair weather for central and western Gulf. 
ASCAT imagery show fresh to strong westerly winds across the 
northeast Gulf. 

Marine conditions will continue to improve rapidly across 
the NE Gulf today. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night,
extend across the basin from central Florida to NE Mexico by Wed
morning and produce strong NE winds behind the front, and 
dissipate by Thu. No new tropical cyclones are expected for the
Gulf for at least the next several day.


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Upper-level ridging and relatively dry air cover much of the 
western portion of the Caribbean. The exception is in the Yucatan 
Channel, where scattered moderate convection prevail. ASCAT data
depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the Gulf of 
Honduras, while moderate trades prevail across the remainder of 
the Caribbean, except for locally fresh near the tropical wave 
along 69W.

A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds 
across most of the the basin through Thu night, except for fresh 
to strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras today and Mon. The 
tropical wave will continue to move westward and reach the western
Caribbean by Tue. No tropical cyclones are expected over the 
basin during the next several days.


Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Scattered showers prevail across the W Atlantic west of 68W. To 
the east, a cold front extends from 32N50W to 25N68W. A surface
trough extends from 28N51W to 23N63W. Scattered moderate 
convection prevails along these features mainly north of 23N. 
Farther east, another surface trough is analyzed from 28N39W to 
23N39W associated to an upper-level low enhancing showers and 
tstorms north of 25N between 30W-38W.

The cold front will shift east of the area later today. Post-
Tropical Cyclone Nestor over Georgia and South Carolina will move 
northeastward across the SE United States today. Nestor will 
generate near gale-force S to SW winds in the coastal waters east
of N Florida this morning, quickly diminishing during the day. 
Weak high pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. The
next cold front will move off the coast of N Florida Tue evening 
and become stationary over central Florida and north of the 
Bahamas by Thu. No new tropical cyclones are expected in the 
waters during the next several days.