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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 132338

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2317 UTC Mon Jul 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending south of 24N with
axis near 26W, moving west around 10 kt. A large area of 
enhanced moisture is seen on TPW imagery in association with this
tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-
12N between 22W-27W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending south of 26N 
with axis near 39W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 06N-09N between 38W-43W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 78W, 
moving westward around 20 kt. A plume of enhanced moisture 
accompanies this tropical wave, as seen on TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-17N
between 78W-83W.


The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 08N59W. Aside 
from the convection mentioned in the section above, no
significant convection is currently occurring.


Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the southeastern Gulf. Mid-
level troughing extends along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
southwestward to the NE Gulf. Mid-level troughing is also over
the SW Gulf. A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High to the
Florida Straits to the central Gulf. The western and central Gulf
are free of any significant precipitation. Isolated to scattered
showers and tstorms are found over portions of the eastern Gulf,
and near the U.S. Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida peninsula.

The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week 
producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with 
the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast
of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, 
the ridge will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough 
that will move westward across Florida and into the SE Gulf.


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the Caribbean.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the Florida Straits, 
contributing toward light to gentle winds in the Caribbean north
of 18.5N. Relatively dry air due to Saharan dust covers most of 
the eastern Caribbean east of 72W. In the far SW Caribbean, the 
east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered strong 
convection mainly south of 11N between 79W-84W. An earlier ASCAT
pass shows fresh to strong trades across the central portion of 
the basin, with moderate trades elsewhere south of 18.5N.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area 
and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds 
in the south-central Caribbean through mid week. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night. A 
tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western 
basin tonight and move out of the basin through mid week. Another
tropical wave farther east in the Atlantic will approach the 
eastern Caribbean by mid week, and move across the central 
Caribbean by late week.


A strong mid- to upper-level trough located over the far eastern
U.S. just inland from the Atlantic seaboard is inducing large
scale rising motion ahead of it in the Atlantic north of 25N
between 65W-75W, where scattered moderate showers and tstorms are
observed. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture being drawn north-
northeastward from the Florida Straits and Bahamas.  Fresh S 
winds are seen on an earlier ASCAT pass north of 27N between 
73W-78W. The 1023 mb Bermuda High is near 30N60W. A broad 
surface ridge extends southwestward from the high, south of the 
weather described above, toward Cuba.

Fresh S winds are expected over the waters north of 27N between 
70W and 80W tonight due to the pressure gradient between high 
pressure to the east and lower pressure over Florida. Otherwise, 
expect fresh to locally strong winds off the N coast of 
Hispaniola through the entire forecast period.