014 
AXNT20 KNHC 171813
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 01N20W and 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W,
to 02N37W 03N43W 03N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is from 05N southward between 44W and 52W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 02N northward between 02W and
07W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb low pressure center is about 180 nm to the NNE of the NE
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and about 150 nm to the NNW of NW
Cuba, close to 24N86W. A stationary front extends to the Florida
Keys, and then toward the NW Bahamas. A cold front extends
southwestward, to the coastal waters of east central Belize.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is in the SW corner of the Gulf,
close to 23N96W. A 1021 mb high pressure center is in southern
Mississippi. 

Fresh cyclonic winds are from 85W eastward. Fresh SE winds are
from 26N to 29N between 88W and 91W. Moderate or slower winds are
in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds, surrounding a 1017 mb low in 
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, will diminish by this evening. 
Moderate to locally fresh SE to SW winds look to develop this 
evening and continue through Sat across the northern and western 
Gulf as a warm front lifts northward, ahead of developing low 
pressure in the south-central United States. A cold front 
associated with the aforementioned low is expected to enter the 
northwestern basin Sat night, and fresh N winds will follow the 
front. Winds will increase to strong speeds on Sun as the pressure
gradient tightens between the front and building high pressure 
over the central U.S. Near-gale force winds will be possible on 
Sun over the southwestern Gulf offshore of Tampico and Veracruz. 
Rough seas are expected to accompany the winds. Looking ahead, a 
very strong cold front is slated to move into the northwestern 
Gulf early next week, leading to strong to near gale force winds 
across the basin. Winds may reach gale force in the far western 
Gulf, offshore of Mexico. Rough to very rough seas are expected 
with these winds. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW oriented shear line passes through 18N63W in the Saint
Barthelemy Channel, to 15N70W and 13N80W. Strong NE winds are from
the shear line northward between 67W and 75W, and from 13N 
southward between 73W and 79W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE 
winds are elsewhere from the Greater Antilles southward between 
64W and the Windward Passage, and from 15N southward from 78W 
westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the 
Caribbean Sea. Rough seas are from 13N southward between 73W and
79W. Moderate seas that range from 6 feet to 7 feet are from the
Greater Antilles southward between 64W and 80W. Slight seas are in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 17/1200 UTC, are: 0.20 in Trinidad; 0.03 in Curacao; and 0.01 
in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. This information is from the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Widespread moderate to fresh E to NE winds will prevail across 
the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean through this 
weekend, with locally strong winds developing each night offshore 
of Colombia and through the Atlantic Passages. Locally rough seas 
are expected near strong winds. A long-period E swell will promote
rough seas through the Atlantic Passages later today through 
early next week. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds will develop Sat 
night in the northwestern Caribbean ahead of a cold front moving 
southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to 
strong E winds and building seas will occur over much of the basin
ahead of the aforementioned cold front approaching the 
northwestern Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A first cold front passes through 31N39W 26N50W 22N60W. A
stationary front continues from 22N60W, to Haiti. A second cold
front is about 160 nm to the SSE of the first cold front, until
23N49W. A shear line continues from 23N49W, to the Saint
Barthelemy Channel. A surface trough is about 280 nm to the NNW of
the second cold front, between 50W and 71W. Strong or faster
cyclonic wind flow is from 28N northward between 54W and 72W.
Fresh cyclonic wind flow is in the remainder of the area that is
from 27N northward between 47W and 78W. Fresh SW winds are from
29N northward between 30W and the first cold front. The 24-hour 
rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 17/1200 
UTC, are: 0.32 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan 
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 12N to 25N from 25W eastward.
Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 25N southward
between 25W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean.

Rough seas are from 07N northward between 35W and 77W.
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Rough to very rough seas, associated with a pair of cold fronts 
in the central Atlantic, will expand farther east today, impacting
areas north of 20N and east of 65W. A long-period N swell 
associated with complex low pressure systems north of the area 
will reinforce rough seas north of 27N and east of 77W today, 
before rough seas slowly subside in this area Sat morning. Fresh 
to strong W to NW winds, associated with a cold front extending 
from the aforementioned lows, will occur north of 28N and east of 
75W today, with winds expanding farther east as the system treks 
eastward. Elsewhere, south of 22N, moderate to fresh trade winds 
will prevail through early next week, with winds pulsing to strong
speeds east of the Windward Islands at times. Fresh to locally 
strong S winds and rough seas are expected to develop off the 
coast of Florida and through the northern Bahamas tonight as low 
pressure forms off the coast of the southeastern U.S., before the 
low moves northeastward this weekend. Another cold front, slated 
to move into the northwestern waters on Sun will promote fresh to 
strong SW to NW winds and rough seas north of 27N. Looking ahead, 
a very strong cold front is expected to move off the southeastern 
U.S. coast early next week, followed by strong north winds and 
building seas north of Cuba and west of 70W. 
 
$$
mt/ea