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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 072233
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Dec 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strengthening Azores high will 
tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of Morocco, 
generating localized N-NE gales and 12-15 ft seas by Thursday 
morning in the marine zone Agadir. Please ready the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website 
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is over the African continent. The ITCZ 
extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N30W to 
the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate  
convection is noted from 02N-06N between 28W- 38W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along the northern Gulf of Mexico from
29N84W to near 22N98W.  A surface trough extends from the Bay of 
Campeche to the southeast Gulf of Mexico. High pressure of 1019 
mb near Tampa Bay extends surface ridging over the central Gulf 
generating mainly gentle anticyclonic winds in the eastern and 
central Gulf with seas of 1-2 ft. Moderate northerly winds are 
present northwest of the stationary front along the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico, where seas are 3-4 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will retreat inland by 
tonight. A ridge will build westward across the basin, with a 
high pressure cell remaining over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to 
fresh southerly return flow will set-up across the western and 
central Gulf on Fri and Sat, ahead of a strong cold front forecast
to push off the Texas coast by Sat morning. Increasing winds and 
building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Gale 
conditions are possible behind the front for the area of Tampico 
and Veracruz beginning Sat afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong NE to E winds continue off the coast of Colombia, along
with 8 to 10 ft seas. Fresh trades dominate the rest of the
central and eastern Caribbean, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. In the NW
Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will extend a ridge
across the northern Caribbean Sea and combined with the Colombian
low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the weekend. 
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere except in the NW 
Caribbean where mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected 
before the weekend. By Thu night into Sun night, as high pressure 
strengthens over the western Atlantic, expect fresh to locally 
strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and, S of
Hispaniola. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The combination of a surface trough extending across the 
northwest Bahamas to 30N75W and upper-level divergence is 
generating scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the 
trough axis between 70W and 75W and from 25N to 31N. Farther 
east, a second trough is noted from 30N58W to 21N57W.Between the 
two troughs, surface ridging is keeping winds gentle. Fresh to 
locally strong NE to E winds prevail across the central tropical 
Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W. Seas in this area 
are 7-10 ft. Between 60W and the Bahamas seas are 3-5 ft. An 
upper-level low W of the Canary Islands is generating scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and east of 23W.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will prevail along 26N-27N 
through the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 
along the southern periphery of the ridge, especially south of 
22N, including the waters just N of Hispaniola and approaches to 
the Windward Passage. A stationary front over the far NW waters is
forecast to lift northward tonight. The next front will move over
the northern forecast waters Thu and Fri while dissipating.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and 
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by 
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at 
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory
states that low ash concentration is expected near and W of the 
volcano.

$$
KONARIK