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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



640 
AXNT20 KNHC 020952
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure 
over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force 
winds off the coast of Colombia early this morning and again tonight.
Seas will peak at 10 to 11 ft with the strongest winds. 

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along 
with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri
morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping 
across the Gulf. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N25W to 02N38W to
20S42W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 03N
between 20W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters 
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features 
section above for more details.

A stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to weak
1019 mb low pressure in the northwest Gulf near 27N94W, then
southward to Poza Rica, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are
evident off the Texas and Tamaulipas coastlines, west of the
front, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft
wave heights are evident elsewhere. Light and moist return flow
persists across the Big Bend region of Florida, resulting in the 
formation of dense fog across the area. A dense fog advisory is in
effect through 17 UTC for the waters across most of the Florida 
panhandle. Mariners should exercise caution. No other significant 
weather is evident.

For the forecast, the low pressure over the northwest Gulf will 
move to the Carolinas through tonight. A trailing cold front will 
sweep across the Gulf through late Fri. Winds to gale force and 
very rough seas will follow the front over the far southwest Gulf 
off the coast of Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist 
through the remainder of the day. Fresh to strong winds and 
moderate to rough seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds 
and seas will diminish from west to east through late Sat across 
the Gulf as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Looking
ahead, expect fresh southerly return flow across the northwest 
Gulf by late Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. 
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh 
to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage and 
the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off
the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft wave 
heights. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas 
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strong to near-gale NE winds will persist 
off the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal 
gale force tonight. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist 
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as 
well. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere through Sat.
Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds will continue to 
pulse off Colombia Sun and Mon, with light breezes over the 
northwest Caribbean, and fresh trades elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains 
moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh 
winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow 
prevails.  

A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central 
Atlantic, south of 25N between 45W and 55W, supporting gentle
breezes and moderate seas in this area. Showers and a few 
thunderstorms persist along another trough oriented east to west 
along 25N between 35W and 45W. Fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft 
seas are evident north of this trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of 35W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure along 27N will 
shift east through tonight, allowing SW winds to increase tonight 
between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching cold
front. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast 
Fri, reach from Bermuda to east- central Florida late Fri night, 
then stall from 31N55W to the northwest Bahamas and South Florida 
Sat. Looking ahead, the front will lift northward Sat night ahead 
of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun. 
The second front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late 
Mon.

$$
Christensen