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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 101105

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.


Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning:

A strong cold front is moving across the NW Gulf followed by 
strong to gale-force northerly winds and a line of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The front will move SE and stretch 
from Florida to the Bay of Campeche tonight, then move SE of the 
region on Mon. Gales following the front will remain W of 94W, 
spreading S into the Bay of Campeche this afternoon where winds
will reach storm-force offshore Veracruz. Winds of storm-force
will be short-lived as they are forecast to end by the early
evening hours. However, gale conditions will continue thereafter
through early Mon. Rough seas will be between 12 to 16 ft, and are
forecast to fall below 8 ft Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast tonight, then slide east across the waters early next 
week. Gales will develop on both sides of the front N of 29N and W
of 75W tonight into Mon, before the front begins to weaken and 
winds decrease some. Seas ahead of the front will reach 7 to 9 ft,
with 8 to 11 ft seas behind the front.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts Forecasts, issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at for details on these
Special Features...


The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ is 
observed from 06N18W to 06N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 22W and 45W.


A strong cold front extends from SE Louisiana SW to 25N97W in NE 
Mexico. Strong to gale-force N to NW winds follow the front with 
rough seas to 9 ft, but rapidly building. 

The front will reach from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico in the
NW Yucatan peninsula this evening, and exit the basin Mon 
morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the front 
across the western Gulf, from offshore Texas southward to the Bay 
of Campeche through this evening. Minimal storm force NW winds are
expected offshore of the Veracruz area this afternoon. Seas are 
forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft with the strongest winds. In the 
eastern and central Gulf, strong to near-gale force winds will 
follow the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to 
accompany the front as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds 
and seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon. Looking
ahead, the aforementioned front may stall across the western 
Atlantic and NW Caribbean early next week, before moving back 
northward as a warm front toward the middle of next week. The 
pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the 
area and lower pressure associated with the warm front may induce 
strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas 
across the northern Gulf by the middle of next week. 


A trade wind regime enhanced by a tight pressure gradient 
between high pressure in the subtropics and lower pressure in 
the tropics is leading to mainly dry conditions across the basin 
with strong NE to E winds over the central basin. Fresh to 
locally strong winds prevail in the eastern basin, with mainly 
moderate to fresh easterlies in the west. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in 
the central basin as well as downwind in the SW Caribbean. Seas in
the eastern Caribbean area 6 to 9 ft and in the NW basin, seas 
range from 4 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the area will continue
to support a large area of strong to near-gale force trade winds 
across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through 
the forecast period. Fresh to strong trades in the E Caribbean 
will diminish to moderate to fresh today before resuming by Tue 
night as a low pressure develops over the central subtropical 
Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds in the E basin will then 
continue through Thu. Looking ahead, the next cold front will 
enter the NW Caribbean early Mon, followed by fresh N to NE winds 
with seas building to 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. The front will
stall over the NW Caribbean early in the week before retreating 
back north of the basin as a warm front by mid-week. 


Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas in association with a
cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight.

A cold front extends across the central basin from 31N34W to
24N45W where it transitions to a weakening stationary front 
that continues SW to the Hispaniola adjacent waters. The front 
continues to support fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of
24N and seas to 9 ft. Surface ridging dominates the remainder NE
subtropical Atlantic waters.  

For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between strong 
high pressure N of 30N and lower pressure associated with the 
dissipating front will continue to produce fresh to strong NE to E
trade winds south of 24N through tonight. Later this morning, 
fresh to strong southerly flow will set up over the waters E of NE
Florida to about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This cold
front is expected to move into the NW forecast waters this 
evening. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely on both sides 
of the front, with brief gales possible tonight N of 29N between 
NE Florida and 73W. Seas will build ahead and behind the cold 
front. The front is forecast to stall late Mon night from Bermuda 
to central Cuba. By mid-week, the front is expected to lift N as a
warm front. The pressure gradient between very strong high 
pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the 
warm front may induce gales to gust fprce NE to E winds and 
building seas to the east of Florida by mid-week.