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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261733
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The current forecast for 
the next 18 hours consists of: 
W gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 9 feet to 11 
feet, from 30N to 31N between 61W and 64W. Strong to near-gale 
force winds and rough seas will cover more of the Atlantic 
Ocean, as the front moves eastward, from 26N northward, through 
this evening. The wind speeds will slow down through tonight. 
Large NW swell will persist from 22N northward from 70W 
eastward, through late Sunday. Please, read the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, 
at the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, 
for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 
10N19W, to 05N30W and to 04N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered 
to scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is within 240 nm on 
either side of the ITCZ between 23W and 42W. Isolated moderate 
to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W 
eastward. 

The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow, with an 
inverted trough, covers the area that is from 10N to 20N between 
50W and 60W. A surface trough is along 21N52W 19N55W 09N60W near 
the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: widely scattered to 
scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is from 09N to 12N 
between 56W and 63W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in 
the remainder of the area that is from 20N southward between 50W 
and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through central Florida near 28.5N82W, 
to 29N84W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 28N90W. A warm front 
continues from 28N90W, to a 1008 mb Texas coastal plains low 
pressure center that is near 29.5N 95.5W. A cold front extends 
from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to 24N94W, to the northern 
coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, curving 
to 22N101W in interior Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong is 
from 26N northward between 89W and 93W, and from 23N to 25N 
between 92W and 94W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in 
the remainder of the area that is bounded by the points that 
cover the areas that are from the Florida Big Bend to the spot 
where the cold front touches the northern part of the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and from the cold front 
northward. 

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 27N northward from 89W 
westward. Moderate to fresh NW to W winds are behind the front 
in the western Gulf waters. The sea heights that are in both 
areas are ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight seas are elsewhere.

A stationary front extends from northern Florida to 28N90W, then 
becomes a warm front westward to a 1012 mb low pressure off the 
Texas coast near 29N95W. A cold front extends from the low 
southward to near Veracruz, Mexico. The front will weaken as it 
moves through the northeast Gulf Sun. Fresh to strong winds 
behind the front will diminish late today in the western Gulf 
and on Sun in the northern Gulf waters. High pressure will build 
in the wake of the front and prevail through Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from Colombia near 75W, 
beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE Pacific 
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is 
from 11N southward from 75W westward. Broad surface low pressure 
covers the areas that are from the SW corner of the Caribbean 
Sea, through Nicaragua and Honduras, into the NW corner of the 
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is NE 
Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within a 30 
nm radius of 12N81W, about 150 nm to the east of Nicaragua. 
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 19N 
southward from 74W westward. 

A tight surface pressure gradient, that exists between the 1024 
mb high pressure center that is near 37N41W, and comparatively 
lower surface pressures that are in the SW Caribbean Sea, are 
helping to sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds, and 
sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in the eastern and 
the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower 
wind speeds, and slight seas, are elsewhere.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that 
ended at 26/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, are: 1.74 in Trinidad, 0.43 
in Bermuda, and 0.12 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will prevail across the 
central and eastern Caribbean Sea through midweek as a strong 
ridge remains north of the area. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas expected elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about 
the gale-force wind warning, for the waters of the central 
Atlantic Ocean. 

A cold front passes through 31N341W, to 28N40W 28N49W. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N 
northward from 50W eastward. It is possible that some of the 
precipitation that is in this area may not be related to the 
cold front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are to the east of the 
front from 27N northward. Combined seas to 8 feet are to the 
north of the front, mainly in NW swell. The sea heights range 
from 8 feet to 10 feet from 28N northward between 28W and the 
cold front. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 35N15W. A 
1024 mb high pressure center is near 37N41W. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet in 
NW swell cover the tropical Atlantic Ocean from 20N southward. 
Moderate NE winds, and sea heights that range from
6 feet to 8 feet in NW swell, are off the northwest coast of 
Africa. Mostly light to gentle breezes and moderate seas in NW 
swell are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. 

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. 
Strong to gale force winds prevail north of 28N and E of the 
front, with strong to near-gale force winds north of 29N W of 
the front. This cold front will stall and weaken along 23N by 
late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish across the region late 
tonight through Sun. Southerly winds will increase off northeast 
Florida Sun ahead of another cold front expected to move off the 
coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the 
Florida Straits Mon night, then from 31N59W to the Straits of 
Florida Tue night before starting to slowly weaken. 

$$
mt/al