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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf 
early on Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds. 
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed 
and early Wed night. As a result, seas will build to 8-10 ft in 
the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Winds 
and seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this Gale 
Warning, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 
10N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 04N30W to 
03N41W. Isolated showers are along the ITCZ but no significant
convection is noted at this time. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A fairly weak pressure gradient exists across the Gulf of 
Mexico, resulting in moderate E to SE winds. Winds occasionally 
reach fresh speeds in the northern Gulf. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 
ft. Recent buoy observations show seas are reaching 5 ft in the 
NW Gulf. No significant convection is noted in the Gulf at this
time.

For the forecast, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters. The next 
cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by strong 
to near gale force north to northeast winds. Frequent gusts to 
gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed and early Wed night.
This front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico near
25N98W by Wed afternoon, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to NE 
Mexico near 25.5N98W by Wed night, then stall and begin to 
dissipate. Strong high pressure behind the front will shift 
eastward through Fri night allowing for winds to become easterly 
and moderate to fresh in speeds across most of the basin. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the 
southwestern Caribbean, off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica.  
Generally tranquil weather conditions prevail elsewhere. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Caribbean and
lower pressure over northern South America is maintaining 
moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and eastern 
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are across most of
the Caribbean range 4 to 7 ft. Seas up to 4 ft are noted within 
the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes are in 
the northwestern Caribbean, except for locally fresh E winds in 
the Gulf of Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands. Seas in 
the areas described are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure N of the area will 
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and 
eastern Caribbean Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will pulse to 
strong speeds tonight and Wed night south of Hispaniola and in the
Windward Passage. Beginning on Thu evening, fresh to strong 
northeast winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward 
Passage and continue south of Hispaniola. These winds will spread 
a good distance to the southwest over the western and central 
Caribbean areas through Sat night as strengthening high pressure 
shifts offshore the mid- Atlantic region. Long-period north swell 
propagating through the Tropical N Atlantic waters will slowly 
subside through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 26N74W, 
then becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to the 
South Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are behind the 
boundary. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft, with 3 ft seas near the 
Bahamas and Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers are seen within 
about 180 nm east of the front north of 27N and E of 59W. 
Elsewhere, 6 to 8 ft seas continue to reach the Leeward Islands, 
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 

Farther east, a trough is analyzed from 30N42W to 24N45W and to
15N46W. A well-defined upper low is shown in water vapor imagery 
near the trough, supporting scattered moderate convection from 16N
to 23N between 42W and 49W. The remainder of the tropical 
Atlantic remains under the dominance of an expansive subtropical 
ridge north of the area. Moderate trades are noted north of 20N 
and east of 45W near the ridge axis, where seas continue to be 10
to 13 ft. Moderate to fresh trades extend south of 20N, and south 
of 27N between the west coast of Africa and 40W. Seas of 10 to 15 
ft are noted between 30W and 40W north of 20N, while seas of 9 to 
14 ft are between 40W to 55W. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak cold front will reach 
from 31N53W to 26N63W to the central Bahamas by Wed morning, then 
stall and begin to dissipate. A second and stronger cold front 
will move off NE Florida by Wed night, reach from near 31N63W to 
the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then become 
stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high pressure in the 
wake of the front moves eastward. On Thu, expected increasing 
winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters W of 
65W, including the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Marine 
conditions will continue to deteriorate across the waters W of 55W
Fri through Sat, with seas building to 14-16 ft E of the Bahamas.
Long-period NE swell will impact the waters between the SE 
Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas on Sat and Sat night 
leading to potentially hazardous marine conditions. 

$$
AReinhart