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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



437 
AXNT20 KNHC 221739
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1720 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 11N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers, dissipating during the last few hours, are from 02N 
to 06N between 24W and 28W. Other nearby precipitation is more 
related to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of 
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N15W, and 05N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 04N30W, 04N40W, to 03N46W, 
and to 02N50W near the the coast of Brazil. Widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N southward 
from 25W eastward, and from 02N to 07N between 30W and 40W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N 
to 06N between 50W and 54W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere 
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, into the eastern and 
SE sections of the Gulf of Mexico, toward the western and SW 
sections of the Gulf of Mexico. 

High pressure in the Western Atlantic Ocean, extending SW to the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico, will maintain fresh to strong SE winds 
across the western Gulf of Mexico through Friday. High pressure 
will become more E to W aligned along 30N during the weekend, in 
order to produce moderate to fresh E to SE wind flow across most 
of the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will 
maintain hazy skies in the western and SW parts of the Gulf of 
Mexico during the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern sections of Costa 
Rica, to the coastal sections of Panama along 79W, into northern 
Colombia. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the SW 
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 79W 
westward. 

An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Channel to the 
Gulf of Honduras. An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic 
circulation center that is just off the western coast of 
Nicaragua, northeastward, across the open waters of the 
Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 13N 
northward between 70W and 86W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that 
ended at 22/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.22 in 
Guadeloupe. 

High pressure in the Western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh 
to strong tradewinds across most of the south central Caribbean 
Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night. The wind 
speeds will diminish modestly through the weekend. It is 
possible that developing low pressure in the eastern Pacific 
Ocean and in Central America may produce very active weather in 
SW Caribbean Sea from Friday through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N69W. Upper 
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that extends from 20N 
northward from 62W westward. A surface trough is along 27N70W 
25N71W 20N71W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N 
northward between 60W and 77W.

A cold front passes through 35N60W to 31N73W to 33N78W. A 
surface trough extends from 34N63W, to a 1012 mb low pressure 
center that is on top of Bermuda, to 31N66W. Rainshowers are 
possible from 25N northward between 30W and 60W.

An upper level trough extends from a 29N13W cyclonic circulation 
center, near the Canary Islands, to 22N21W, to a 21N45W cyclonic 
circulation center. Rainshowers are possible within 360 nm on 
either side of the trough.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N24W. A second 1022 mb 
high pressure center is near 34N33W. A stationary front is along 
35N24W 33N28W 32N32W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the 
Atlantic Ocean from 14N northward from 60W eastward, except away 
from the stationary front.

The current 35N60W-to-33N78W cold front will move southward, 
across the northern waters of the area, from this afternoon 
through Friday. The front will stall along an E-to-W line, along 
25N late on Friday, and then it will dissipate gradually. High 
pressure N of the front will sink S to 30N by Friday night, and 
persist through the weekend. A broad inverted trough will 
persist N of Hispaniola through Friday.

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt