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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181056
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 19N southward,
moving W 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N 
between 30W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 18N 
southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong 
rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 21N56W to Guadeloupe, 14N64W, and to 11N63W near the NE coast
of Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from 21N 
southward, moving W 15 knots. The GFS model shows that a 250 mb 
trough passes from the central Bahamas, across the SE half of 
Cuba, to eastern Honduras. The satellite imagery easily confirms 
the trough. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the 
coastal areas of NE Nicaragua, in eastern El Salvador, and in 
southern sections of Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 15N17W to 05N43W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N43W to 04N48W, and to the coast of French
Guiana near 05N53W. Isolated to Widely scattered moderate and 
isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of
the line that runs from the coast of Gambia, to 09N23W, to 07N31W,
07N45W, 08N49W to 08N59W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from
12N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend, to a 1013 mb
Gulf of Mexico low pressure center that is near 29.5N86.3W, and
continuing to 29N89W. A middle level to upper level trough is in 
the SE U.S.A. and the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS 
model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough in the 
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 20N northward from 92W eastward.

Fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the far NE Gulf will 
diminish to fresh speeds today, then increase again to fresh to 
strong speeds tonight, and diminish to gentle speeds on Monday. 
Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in the NE Gulf will 
continue through today and possibly tonight, accompanied by 
locally strong wind gusts and rough seas. Strong winds will pulse 
in the waters just west of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening 
through Monday night. The northern part of a tropical wave will 
move from the western Caribbean Sea to the Bay of Campeche, 
from Tuesday through Wednesday, and in the far western Gulf of
Mexico from late Wednesday through Thursday night. It is expected
to increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms across 
those areas of the Gulf. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure 
will extend from the Atlantic to across the central Gulf through 
the upcoming week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes from the central Bahamas, across the
SE half of Cuba, to eastern Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are within 800 nm to the NW of the line that 
runs from the Anegada Passage to the coast of Venezuela along 67W.
Other rainshowers are possible in the rest of the NW Caribbean 
Sea.

In the wake of a recent tropical wave, the gradient 
will tighten enough to allow for fresh to strong east winds over
some sections of the northwestern Caribbean today. Fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds will resume over the south-
central Caribbean this evening also in the wake of a tropical 
wave, that is presently over the eastern Caribbean. These winds 
are expected to last well into the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is between the Bahamas and the east coast of
Florida, from Andros Island to 30N. Rainshowers are possible
within 90 nm on either side of the trough.

A surface trough is along 30N66W 26N67W 21N67W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are within 800 nm to the east of 
the trough, and within 500 nm to the west of the trough. 

The current surface ridge, that extends from Bermuda to south
central Florida, will continue to move northward slowly through
Monday, as an area of broad low pressure northwest of the 
forecast waters tracks northeastward. An inverted surface trough,
currently along 66W/67W, will track westward across the eastern 
and central forecast waters through tonight, then over the western
Bahamas Mon before moving inland over Florida Tue. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will accompany this trough. The gradient
between the high pressure ridging and the trough will allow for 
generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds to the north 
of about 22N and for moderate to fresh east winds S of 22N through
most of the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will 
pulse at night between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola
through Wed. 

$$
MT