Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 312320
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America
and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around 
the gyre encompassing southern Mexico and much of Central 
America. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact portions of 
Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to Southern Mexico. 
The low level circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda has dissipated 
over Guatemala today, but the focused area of circulation within 
the larger Central American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall 
over portions of Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 
hours.

Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture 
into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the 
next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for 
these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of 
Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western 
Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and 
eastern Oaxaca. A continued period of active and wet weather, 
with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the 
next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate 
the current situation, with the potential for life- threatening 
flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the 
heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. 
Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for
more details.

Tropical Storm Amanda dissipated over Guatemala today. The 
remnants may rotate around the larger circulation of the Central 
American Gyre and move out over water in the Bay of Campeche. 
There is a medium possibility that the remnant circulation of 
Amanda may develop into a tropical cyclone in the SW Gulf when it 
emerges over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N15W to 05N29W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N- 010N between 
the coast of Liberia west to 20W. Scattered showers are noted from
04N to 09N between 20W and 30W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted along the coast of Brazil from 02S- 04N 
west of 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the 
next few days.

A stationary front extends along the northern Gulf coast from 
Panama City Florida to southern Louisiana to Houston Texas. A 
Surface trough reaches northward from the far southwest Gulf to 
off Brownsville Texas. Numerous thunderstorms are active over 
the Bay of Campeche and in the Yucatan peninsula, associated to 
the Central American Gyre. Fresh to strong winds are over the SW
Gulf to the west of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the SW Gulf,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

A weak stationary front along the northern Gulf will dissipate 
tonight. However, a favorable middle to upper level pattern will 
continue to favor the continuation of showers and tstms in this 
portion of the basin through Fri. Heavier showers are expected in 
the southern half of the basin associated with the Central 
American Gyre, which is forecast to be nearly stationary the 
entire week. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas are 
expected in the Bay of Campeche through Wed associated with this 
feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the 
next few days. 

The Central American Gyre is producing showers and thunderstorms 
across much of Central America and waters offshore central 
America. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Gulf of 
Honduras. Gentle to moderate prevail elsewhere across the 
Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf of 
Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central 
America and southern Mexico during the upcoming week supporting 
heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean. 
Winds and seas will also increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off 
Yucatan through Fri as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild to 
north of the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of 
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through 
Fri. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough reaches from near 30N68W through the southern 
Bahamas toward the far eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered showers and
tstorms are active from 23N- 30N E of the trough to 63W. A  
surface trough extends from 31N50W to 26N53W. Showers are noted
within 90 nm E of the trough. High pressure of 1021 mb is 
centered near 26N59W. Gentle to moderate tradewinds, and seas of
5-6 ft, prevail S of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5
ft prevail over the open waters N of 20N. Seas are in the 1-2 ft
range W of the Bahamas.

A cold front will sink into the NW offshore waters and extend 
from just east of Bermuda SW to the northern Bahamas by Mon 
afternoon. The front will stall along 25N by Tue afternoon, and 
dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to fresh
to strong Mon and Tue. High pressure building in the wake of the 
front will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed 
through Fri. 

$$ 
AL/MTorres