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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



021 
AXNT20 KNHC 021745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1655 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 30W, from 03N to 
16N, moving W slowly at 5 kt. Scattered showers are noted S of 
11N between 25W-33W. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.  
The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward 
or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone 
development through 48 hours and a high chance through the next 5 
days. For the latest information, please read the Tropical Weather
Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W, south of 17N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection has increased during the last 12
hours and a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
observed from 05N to 14N and between 41W and 52W. Moderate to
fresh easterly trades and seas of 4-6 ft are noted in these
waters. Some gradual development of the wave is possible during 
the next few days while it moves generally westward at 13 to 17 
kt, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea 
by midweek. This disturbance has a low chance of tropical cyclone 
development through 48 hours and within the next 5 days. For the 
latest information, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at 
hurricanes.gov.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the coast of Africa through the coast
of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N25W and
08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 08N46W and then from
08N48W to 09N60W. Scattered showers are present near the monsoon
trough from 19W to 25W. Similar convection is occurring from 05N
to 09N and between 36W and 41W, and also from 07N to 13N and
between 54W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry continental airmass continues to advance across the Gulf of
Mexico, maintaining favorable marine conditions. Light to locally
moderate northerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and slight seas. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough persists from central Cuba to a 1009 mb low pres
near 15N82W to 11N82W. This feature, along with divergence aloft
and plenty of tropical moisture continue to support the formation
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between the 
trough axis and 70W and from eastern Cuba to Hispaniola to the SW 
Caribbean, also affecting portions of Jamaica, San Andres and 
Providencia Islands, Costa Rica and Panama. The rest of the basin 
observes a generally dry airmass that is suppressing the 
development of any deep convection. 

Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are found in the eastern 
Caribbean, offshore southern Hispaniola and the Windward Passage, 
while light to gentle winds are prevalent in the remainder of the 
Caribbean. Seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean
and 1-2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over 
the western Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave, 
currently located along 47W should reach 55W/56W by Tue bringing 
some increase in winds and seas to the waters E of the Lesser 
Antilles. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to 
moderate seas are expected across the basin. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves 
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas to just
off SE Florida near 24N81W. Scattered showers are affecting the
waters N of 25N and between the front and 69W. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are found N of 25N and between the front and 70W,
while moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted N of 25N,
between 70W and 58W. Seas of 4-7 ft are occurring N of 25N and
between the front and 58W. The remainder of the western Atlantic W
of 55W is observing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft.
Low-level convergence is generating a few showers from 21N to 26N
and between 62W and 66W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic, maintaining tranquil
weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are seen on
satellite-derived wind data south of the monsoon trough, between
19W and 32W. Seas in these waters are 4-5 ft. Outside of the deep
tropics, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends east of
Florida from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. This front will be 
reinforced by a cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida 
today. The combined frontal boundary will continue moving east 
across the western Atlantic reaching from 31N70W to the central 
Bahamas on Mon, and from 31N66W to the SE Bahamas on Tue. At the 
same time, another cold front will move off NE Florida Mon night 
into Tue followed by moderate to fresh winds and building seas. 

$$
DELGADO