000
AXNT20 KNHC 280557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...

The National Weather Service in Miami Florida has issued a warning
for GALE-FORCE WINDS, for frequent gusts to gale-force. Expect
also: strong to near gale-force E winds, and moderate to rough
seas, through 1500 UTC on Sunday, from 22N to 29N between 77W and
82W. Please, read local bulletins and forecasts, at 
www.weather.gov/mfl, and the latest High Seas Forecast, that is 
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of the
borders of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, to 03N18W and 02N23W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N23W, to the Equator along 32W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 06N southward from South America eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mostly strong and some fresh SE winds are in the eastern half of
the area. Fresh to strong SE winds are in the western half of the
area. Rough seas are from 22N northward from 92W westward, and in
the Straits of Florida. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico.

A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough extends from the
Texas Big Bend, through 22N100W, through the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to the NE quadrant of Honduras.
A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to SE
Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. 

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf coast 
states and lower pressure across E Mexico and the SW Gulf of 
Mexico will support fresh to strong southeast winds over much of 
the Gulf through Sun night before diminishing. Seas will peak near
10 ft in the NW and central Gulf through Sun. Winds will pulse to
fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening 
through the forecast period. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line is along 23N66W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the 
northern parts of Haiti, to the Windward Passage, and to 16N77W in
the Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds are to the north of the shear
line, from Haiti and the Dominican Republic northward. Rainshowers
are possible still, from 16N to 20N between 60W and 82W. Heavy rains
and flooding have been occurring in Hispaniola during the last 
week. The threat of heavy rain appears to be diminishing.
Localized flooding still is possible. Please, refer to bulletins 
from your local or national meteorological service for more 
details. 

Moderate to fresh NE winds are from the Greater Antilles 
southward from 82W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong E to SE 
winds are from 16N northward from 82W westward. Gentle winds are 
within 135 nm of the land in the SW corner of the area between 79W
for Panama and 83W for SE Nicaragua. Mostly slight seas, to some 
moderate seas, are from 70W eastward. Mostly moderate seas, to 
some slight seas, are between 70W and 83W. Moderate seas are in 
the NW corner of the area. The GFS model for 250 mb shows that a 
trough passes through Hispaniola to the SW corner of the area near
10N81W.

The Pacific Ocean Equatorial trough is in Colombia near 10N75W, 
through the southern sections of Panama, beyond 08N90W. 
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is 
from 11N southward between Colombia and 79W. 

A strong 1032 mb high pressure system over the western Atlantic 
will support fresh to occasionally strong winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras, the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of 
Hispaniola through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh 
easterly winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Northerly 
swell will bring seas of 8 ft through the passages in the NE 
Caribbean early next week. Moderate to locally fresh easterly 
trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean during the rest of 
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A first cold front passes through 31N52W, to 25N60W, to 23N66W.
A shear line continues from 23N66W, through the northern parts of
Haiti, to the Windward Passage. A second cold front is passing
through 31N56W, to 29N60W 28N65W 29N67W. Moderate to rough seas
are from the first cold front northward between 70W and 76W.
Rough seas are from the second cold front to 30N. Rough to very
rough seas are from 30N northward, to the north of the second cold
front. Moderate seas are elsewhere from the first cold front
northward. Moderate seas are everywhere else in the remainder of 
the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 24N 
northward between 40W and the first cold front. Fresh NE winds are
between the first cold front and the second cold front. Moderate 
or slower winds are everywhere else in the remainder of the 
Atlantic Ocean.

A surface trough is along 44W/45W from 14N to 22N. The trough is
the remnant of the low pressure center that was in the area six
hours ago. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate, are from 11N to 24N between 34W and 52W.

A second surface trough is along 57W and 58W from 18N to 23N.
Upper level SW winds are moving through the area that is above the
surface trough. Rainshowers are possible from 16N to 23N between
50W and 60W. 

A third surface trough is along 28N/31N between 09W and 37W.
This trough is the remnant of an earlier cold front. Moderate to
rough seas are from 30N northward from 30W eastward. Mostly fresh
NE winds are from 10N northward from 37W eastward.

A cold front extends from 29N55W to 22N66W, followed by a shear 
line to western Hispaniola. These boundaries will move E before 
stalling and weakening over the far southeastern waters late Sun 
through Mon night. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds will 
prevail N of 28N behind the front to 65W tonight through Sun, with
seas building seas to 12 ft over the NE waters by Sun. Fresh to 
strong winds will prevail over the waters S of 25N and W of the 
front through Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere 
into early next week. More tranquil marine conditions are expected
afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters. 

$$
mt/sd