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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 231034

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0940 UTC.


Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will 
emerge off the NE Florida coast this afternoon. Strong SW winds
will develop across the NE Florida near and offshore waters this
morning, and will increase to gale-force this afternoon as the
front exits the coast. Gales are expected ahead of the front, 
mainly N of 29N between 66W and 80W, Fri afternoon through Sat 
afternoon, as the front shifts E-SE. Rough to very rough seas in 
westerly swell will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 16 ft 
expected within the area of gales. Strong westerly winds will 
spread across these same waters behind the front Sat through Sun 
morning before wind and seas begin to diminish through Mon.

Marine interests in the areas should plan accordingly. Please, 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to
00.5S27W. The ITCZ continues from 00.5S27W to 00N42W to 00.5S49W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N 
to 06N between 00W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 00N to 04N between 33W and 50W.


High pressure centered just NE of the Bahamas extends a ridge
westward to the coast of NE Mexico. A cold front is across SE
Texas and is approaching the Texas coast this morning. Anticyclonic
return flow is found across the basin ahead of it, with fresh SW
flow dominating the NE Gulf. Seas have subsided overnight across
NW portions, where seas are now 5-7 ft. Seas across N central and
NE portions are in the 4-7 ft range, and 2-4 ft elsewhere S of 25N.
Low clouds and fog are restricting visibilities from Galveston Bay
to Mobile Bay.

For the forecast, a weak ridge extends from just NE of the 
Bahamas westward across the entire Gulf of Mexico, and will shift 
eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the 
Texas coast this morning. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front 
over the NE Gulf. The front will reach from the western Florida 
Panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas by midday, move over the 
southern Gulf waters on Sat morning, then southeast of the basin 
Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected 
behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high pressure will 
build in the wake of the front late Sat through early next week,
with strong southerly return flow developing western portions Tue
through Tue night.


A weakening Atlantic cold front extends through 20N57W 
southwestward across the central Lesser Antilles to 14N63W. Widely
scattered weak convection is within 120 nm either side of the
trough in the E Caribbean, to the east of 65W. Gentle to moderate
N to NE winds are seen across the basin east of 70W, becoming
fresh across the waters of southeastern Dominican Republic. Seas 
are 3 to 5 ft there except higher in the Atlantic Passages due to
moderate N swell. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found off the
coast of Colombia with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are 
found elsewhere, with southerly winds opening up across the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a 1017 mb high is centered NE of the Bahamas 
near 27N74W and extends a ridge westward across the Gulf of 
Mexico. The weakening cold front extending into the Lesser
Antilles will move slowly eastward and into the Tropical Atlantic
waters today then drift W and dissipate on Sat. Fresh to strong 
trade winds will return to the south-central Caribbean Fri night 
and persist through the weekend, strongest at night. A cold front 
will reach the NW Caribbean late Sat afternoon, and extend from 
eastern Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W 
Sun morning, then sink SE and dissipate from Hispaniola to the 
Gulf of Honduras Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the W 
Atlantic Mon through Tue night and produce fresh to strong trade 
winds across central portions of the basin.


A 1017 mb high is centered just NE of the Bahamas near 27N74W. A
deep layered upper level cyclone has produced a 1011 mb surface low
near 30N60W. East of this low center, a cold front enters the area
through 31N54W to the central Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate
convection is noted N of 24N, between the front and 59W. Recent 
scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong southerly winds east 
of the front to near 50W. Rough seas to 10 ft are noted on either
E of the front. West of the front, gentle to moderate N to NW 
winds prevail to 72W. Seas W of 60W are dominated by N to NE swell
producing seas of of 8-11 ft. Fresh SW winds have recently
developed offshore of NE Florida, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. 
Farther east, high pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N
and E of the front. Fresh to strong winds are noted from 15N to 
28N between the west coast of Africa and 40W, with moderate to 
fresh winds elsewhere E of 60W. Seas of 7-10 ft generally prevail 

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to move 
slowly eastward across the Atlantic and weaken to a frontal trough
today, then drift westward toward the Leeward Islands on Sat. 
Winds and seas associated with this system will improve Fri night
into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast 
this afternoon. Gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of the 
front across the north waters, mainly N of 29N and W of 66W, this 
afternoon through Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas in 
westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching 
as far S as 24N on Sun. The front will stall from the central 
Atlantic to Hispaniola Tue.