AXNT20 KNHC 280557
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 28 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 12N southward,
and moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is present
near this feature at this time.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 11N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered convection is noted
from 03N to 09N between 33W and 38W.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 12N
southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen from the Guyana-Suriname coast to
09N between 49W and 56W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W from 14N southward into
eastern Venezuela, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Trinidad,
Tobago, Grenada and the Venezuela coast.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast and
curves southwestward to 10N22W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident south of the trough from 02N to 07N between 14W and 21W.
An ITCZ extends from 05N24W to 04N35W, then from 05N38W to
06N48W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 110 nm along
either side of the first ITCZ segment, and up to 120 nm north of
the second segment.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Costa Rica and
Panama, and nearby Caribbean waters.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak surface trough curves westward from the Florida Straits to
the east-central Gulf. Another surface trough is over the central
Gulf southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Widely scattered showers
are present up to 40 nm along either side of the first trough, and
up to 150 nm along either side of the second trough. Otherwise,
weak ridging dominates the rest of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE
to E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the entire Gulf.
For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the Gulf through the first
half of this week. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form over
the western Gulf by midweek.
Convergent southeasterly winds are generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Puerto
Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist at the south-central basin.
Gentle to moderate E to SE trades with 2 to 4 ft seas are found at
the eastern and north-central basin, and the Gulf of Honduras.
Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft prevail elsewhere in
For the forecast, relatively weak pressure north of the area will
maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean
through midweek, except occasionally pulse to 20 kt along the
northern coast of South American and off Honduras.
A weak cold front reaches southwestward from off the Carolina
coast across 31N76W to offshore of Miami, Florida. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident up to 50
nm along either side of the front, including the northwest Bahamas.
The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb high near
31N46W to the central and southeast Bahamas. Aided by divergent
upper-level winds, convergent southerly winds near the ridge axis
are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 20N
between 62W and 68W, and from the central Bahamas northward
between 71W and 74W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Ocean.
Moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft persist
east of northeast Florida, north of 29N between 75W and the
Georgia-northern Florida coast. Farther south, light to gentle
winds with 4 to 8 ft seas in moderate northerly swell are noted
from 25N to 29N between 75W and the central and southeast Florida
coast. Gentle SE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the Great
Bahama Bank. For the western to central Atlantic, the broad
Atlantic Ridge is supporting light to gentle with locally moderate
NE to ESE trades and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N between 35W and
75W/southeast Bahamas. To the south and southeast, gentle to
moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft seas dominate from
06N to 20N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo
Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE trades
and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen from 13N to 22N between the central
Africa coast and 25W. Near the Canary Islands, light to gentle
winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are present north of 22N between the
northwest Africa coast and 25W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds
and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
For the forecast, the weak cold front will dissipate offshore from
Florida through Sun. Strong westerly winds will continue through
tonight off northeast Florida and diminish through Sun morning.
Afterward, the Atlantic Ridge will lead to quiescent conditions
late Sun through Wed.