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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical 
wave located over southeastern Mexico is expected to emerge into 
the Bay of Campeche later this morning. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical 
depression could form while the system moves northwestward over 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today or Saturday. However,
by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over 
northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. 
There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the 
next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 19N southward
across the western Cabo Verde Islands, and moving westward about 
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N 
between 18W and 27W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 19N southward
into Suriname, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are found over eastern 
Suriname and east of the Leeward Islands from 16N to 21N between
57W and 61W.

Another tropical wave is near 91W from 21N southward along the
Yucatan west coast across southern Mexico and Guatemala into the
East Pacific, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north and west of
the Yucatan, and over southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. Please 
see the Special Features section above on the potential for 
tropical cyclone development.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
northern Mauritania, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at  
13N23W to 08N39W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
present from 13N to 16N between the coast of Senegal and 21W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen farther west near the trough
from 08N to 11N between 34W and 39W, and also south of the trough
from 04N to 08N between 27W and 34W. An ITCZ continues from 
08N39W through 07N47W to 10N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident up to 80 nm north, and up to 50 nm south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for potential
tropical cyclone development associated with a tropical wave in
the Bay of Campeche.

A 1012 mb low pressure over southern Louisiana and its associated
frontal boundary over southern Texas are causing scattered 
showers and thunderstorms near the Louisiana and Texas coast. 
Convergent surface winds are triggering scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf, north of the 
Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves 
section for additional weather in the Gulf. 

A modest surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1015 mb 
high over the east- central Gulf to north of Tampico, Mexico. This
feature is promoting gentle ESE to S winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft 
for the north-central and eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan 
Channel and Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and
2 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the 
Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, another frontal boundary extending from the low
over southern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend area will continue
to enhance showers and thunderstorms across the northeastern Gulf
through early Fri. The strong tropical wave over the western 
Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche 
later this morning, which will sustain showers and thunderstorms
in the Bay of Campeche through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Enhanced by an upper-level trough near central Cuba, convergent
trades are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
just south of Cuba and near Hispaniola. 

The Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from the 1028 mb Azores
High continues to channel NE to E trades across the entire basin.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the 
south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern
basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft 
prevail for the remainder of the basin, including the Gulf of 
Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the region will 
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central and portions of
the SW Caribbean through Sat, then gradually weaken through Mon. 
A broad tropical wave will move across the Tropical Atlantic 
waters tonight, across the eastern Caribbean Fri, and the central 
Caribbean Fri night and Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough reaching northeastward from southwest Florida to
off the northern Florida coast is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the central and southern Florida, and the 
offshore waters east of northern Florida. A robust upper-level 
low over the north-central Atlantic at 31N47W is triggering 
scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 45W and 49W. A 
surface trough near 14N51W is causing similar conditions from 13N 
to 16N between 49W and 52W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and 
Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic 
Basin.

Light to gentle SE to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas near the 
Atlantic ridge related to the 1028 mb Azores High can be found 
north of 25N between 45W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Farther 
south, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft 
are evident from 11N to 25N between 25W and the Less 
Antilles/Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE 
trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found north of 20N between the 
northwest African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and
southerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging from the Azores High 
to the Bahamas is expected to gradually shift northward to along 
30N through Sat, then north of the area by Mon night. A frontal 
boundary over the NE Florida coastal waters will stall across 
northern Florida tonight and then gradually lift northward through
Fri while weakening. Active weather ahead of the front across the
northern Bahamas and its offshore waters will persist through 
tonight. Gentle to moderate easterly winds S of 25N will reach 
moderate to fresh speeds tonight through Sun as a tropical wave 
moves across the eastern and central Caribbean. 

$$

Chan