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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 281008

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 24W from 
12N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant 
convection is present near this feature at this time. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 38W from 
12N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 13N between 32W and 45W. 

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 52W 
from 12N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered 
showers are noted from 07N to 10N between 50W and 54W.

A SE Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 64W from 14N 
southward into eastern Venezuela, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near 
the Venezuela coast.


A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N22W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N26W to 05N36W, then from 07N40W to 
07N49W. Aside from the convection already described in the 
section above, scattered moderate convection prevails along the 
ITCZ boundaries. 


A weak surface trough is over the NW Gulf along 92W and N of 25N.
Another trough is analyzed from 26N87W to 23N85W. Weak ridging 
dominates the rest of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E to SE 
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern will support gentle 
to moderate winds and slight seas across the Gulf through the 
first half of this week. Looking ahead, a weak low pressure may 
form over the western Gulf by midweek.


Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist at 
the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades with 2 
to 4 ft seas are found at the eastern and north-central basin, and
the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft
prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, relatively weak pressure north of the area will
maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean
through mid week, with occasional pulses to 20 kt along the 
northern coast of South America and off Honduras. 


A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N76W to 26N79W. Scattered 
showers are noted from the front to 68W. The Atlantic ridge 
extends southwestward from a 1024 mb high near 32N46W to the 
central Bahamas.

In the central Atlantic, ridging extends across the area anchored
by a 1024 mb high pres near 32N46W. Gentle to moderate easterly 
winds prevail with seas to 6 ft. Ridging also extends across the 
eastern Atlantic which is keeping quiescent conditions in that 
area. Winds are light to gentle and seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the weak front will dissipate offshore from 
Florida today. Fresh westerly winds will continue through this 
morning off northeast Florida and diminish through the afternoon 
hours. High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions 
tonight through Thu.