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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 251043

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.


A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis
along 30/31W from 12N southward, moving W at around 10-15 kt. A 
TPW maximum is just behind the wave axis. Model guidance supports 
this position. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 
180 nm E of the wave axis where it intersects the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 18N42W to 09N41W, moving W 
around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air surrounds the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66/67W from 07N-21N, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is apparent in TPW imagery. Puerto
Rico Doppler Radar and satellite imagery show scattered showers
and isolated tstorms near and over Puerto Rico. Isolated showers
are elsewhere near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean with axis along 79W
from 05N-17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen in the SW Caribbean south of 12N between 74W-84W, and
along and near the coast of Nicaragua.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 08N21W to 05N32W. The ITCZ begins near 05N32W and continues to
the coast of South America near 07N58W. Aside from the convection
described near the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted 
along and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 34W-37W.


A 1019 mb surface high near 27N88W is bringing quiet weather to 
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level riding also prevails over 
the eastern Gulf. Southerly winds to the west of the high are 
ushering in moist tropical air to the west-central Gulf and 
southern Texas. As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen
over the west-central Gulf from 21N-27N, west of 95W. Scattered
moderate showers and isolated tstorms extend north of that area
along the Texas coast. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen north
of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the western Bay of Campeche.

A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves west-
northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the 
remainder of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds
through Sat night.


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean Sea. The
northwest Caribbean still contains relatively dry air, although
there is enough moisture to support isolated to scattered showers
and tstorms north of 18N west of 75W, to near the Yucatan Channel.
Farther south, in an area with greater moisture content, scattered
moderate convection is seen over NW Venezuela, northern Colombia,
as well as the waters north of Panama and east of Costa Rica and

Latest ASCAT pass from Monday evening shows strong winds in the 
Gulf of Venezuela and Gulf of Honduras, with fresh trades in the 
central Caribbean, and moderate winds elsewhere. The Bermuda high 
will strengthen by Wed increasing winds across the central and 
southwest Caribbean through the weekend. Near gale force winds 
are expected at night over Colombia adjacent waters tonight
through Sat night.


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A cold front extends from a triple point near 33N72W to 29N72W. A
warm front extends SE from the triple point to 30N68W. Isolated
showers are seen from 27N-30N between 71W-75W. A cold front enters
the area near 32N49W to 28N53W to 27N58W. A pre-frontal trough is
from 31N48W to 25.5N54W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms
are seen ahead of the front and in the vicinity of the trough, 
mainly N of 24N between 44W-56W. In the NE Atlantic, a cold front
enters the discussion area near 32N13W to 26N17W. No significant 
convection accompanies the front.

A frontal boundary across the waters north of 27N should dissipate
today. A trough will linger over the north-central waters, and 
move westward through Thu, likely reaching Florida by Fri. The 
pressure gradient on the southwest side of the Bermuda high will 
remain weak, producing light to gentle winds in the area through 
Wed. The Bermuda high will strengthen Wed night through Sat and 
tradewinds will increase to moderate east of the Bahamas, across 
the Old Bahama Channel, and in the approach to the Windward 

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