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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 151134

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.


A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 17N southward to 
N Colombia, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 
04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 04N40W to N Brazil near
02N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N 
between 08W-16W, and from 03N-09N between 23W-43W.


As of 15/0900 UTC a 1013 mb low is centered over Jacksonville
Florida near 30N81W. A cold front extends south from the low to 
the SE Gulf of Mexico near 26N82W to beyond W Cuba near 22N84W. 
Isolated moderate convection is over the SE Gulf from 24N-26N 
between 81W-83W to include the southern Florida Keys. Scattered 
showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. Overcast 
multilayered clouds are over most of the the Gulf of Mexico due to
a strong upper level jetstream from S Mexico to the Florida 
Panhandle. The far NW Gulf now has mostly fair weather, however. 

The current cold front will pass to the SE of the Gulf today, 
with winds and seas gradually decreasing behind the exiting front.
High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front 
and prevail through the weekend.


A surface trough extends from the S Bahamas near 23N71W to central
Hispaniola to the north central Caribbean near 17N72W. Scattered 
showers are over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and 
the S Bahamas.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above.

A cold front extends S from W Cuba near 22N84W to NE Honduras near
16N85W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 25-30 kt
N winds are noted W of front. The front will slowly move 
southeast, eventually stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern 
Honduras by Sat. E swell will maintain seas 8 ft or above for 
tropical N Atlantic through the end of the week. 

In the SW Caribbean, widely scattered moderate convection is 
noted south of 12N between 75W-84W, due to the eastern extent of 
the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.


A warm front extends NE from the low over Jacksonville Florida to
32N80W. Widely scattered moderate convection is off the N Florida
coast from 30N-33N between 77W-80W. 

A small 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N31W.
the tail-end of a cold front extends from N of the Canary Islands
near 32N14W to 29N20W to 27N30W. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the front. 

High pressure over the W Atlantic will shift ESE today ahead of a
cold front moving off the NE Florida coast. The front will reach 
from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late 
tonight into Fri. Meanwhile, a trough over Hispaniola will move 
into the SE Bahamas today and stall, before losing identity ahead 
of the cold front Fri and Sat.

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