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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 031741

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale is forecast to start over the central Atlantic on 05/1200
UTC. A cold front will produce gale force winds N of 30N between
54W-56W with seas 16-18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, 
or at website for 
more details.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of N Liberia near 
06N10W to 04N20W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that 
it transitions to the ITCZ to 00N30N to the coast of Brazil near 
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between
20W-26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
01N-06S between 30W-50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 01N-05N between 45W-51W. 


Weak high pressure centered over Georgia and the NE Gulf of 
Mexico is maintaining gentle winds across much of the eastern 
Gulf. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the northwest 
Gulf, between the high pressure over Georgia and lower pressure 
over northern Mexico. Latest and current satellite and radar 
imagery show isolated showers over portions of the northern Gulf,
mainly north of 26N and west of about 85W.

A cold front arriving on the Texas coast Sat will trigger showers
and thunderstorms over the far NW Gulf Fri night through Sat 
night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening N and W of 
the Yucatan Peninsula through the period as thermal troughs move 
NW from the Peninsula over the Gulf. Otherwise, A weak high pres 
ridge over the NE Gulf will generally support light to moderate E 
to SE winds over the basin through Tue night.  


The tail end of a stationary front reaches E Cuba near 20N75W.
Scattered showers are over E Cuba and W Hispaniola. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are along the coast of Panama. A weak surface
pressure gradient is presently producing 10-20 kt tradewinds.
Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia, while weakest
winds are along the S coast of Hispaniola. In the upper levels,
strong subsidence is over Central America and the Caribbean Sea.  

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle 
of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the western Atlantic. 
Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night beginning Sat night 
over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of 


A gale is forecast for the central Atlantic. See above. 

A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 30N48W to E
Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm NW of the
front. A 1018 mb high is over the subtropical Atlantic near
22N44W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic from 
30N19W to 23N27W. Scattered showers are over the Canary Islands. 

The central Atlantic front will begin to slowly move E again
tonight. The tail end of the front will push to E of the Leeward
Islands near 18N62W by Mon morning. Gale conditions are possible 
near 31N65W Sat evening as intense low pressure centered SE of New
England pivots southeastward to pass just NE of Bermuda. North 
swell generated by the low will produce very large seas across the
waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. 
Seas will gradually subside through early next week as the swell 

The E Atlantic front will exit the Atlantic Fri. 

$$ Formosa