871 
AXNT20 KNHC 052231
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of 
Sierra Leone near 09N14W and continues southwestward to 07N18W. 
The ITCZ extends eastward from 07N18W to 03N47W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N 
and west of 14W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas 
dominate most of the basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted off the Texas coast within the NW Gulf of
Mexico, N of 26N and W of 91W. Smoke from agricultural fires in 
portions of southern Mexico is reducing visibility and creating 
hazy conditions across parts of the southwest and west- central 
Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the 
southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh SE
winds across much of the Gulf through late week. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the 
northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural 
fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central
Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of 
the Lesser Antilles, combined with abundant tropical moisture, is 
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms across the north- 
central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The trough will gradually 
weaken and move farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric 
conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of 
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. 
Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to 
Puerto Rico today. See local weather advisories for more 
information. 

Moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas are
observed across most of the basin, including the Windward 
Passage. Light to gentle winds are noted in the SW Caribbean with
slight seas. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western 
Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades over the 
SE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse nightly
in the Windward Passage into the middle of the week. A surface 
trough that had been impacting the north-central and NE basin has 
finally lift NE and out of the area, taking showers and 
thunderstorms with it. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a 1017 mb low near 26N57W to 
28N74W. No convection is directly associated with this front. 
Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas are noted north
of the front, while gentle or weaker NE to E winds and slight 
seas are found south of the front. 

Further east, another modest cold front extends from 30N40W to 
21N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the 
front N of 22N and W of 33W. Ahead of the front to 30W, moderate 
to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present. Off the coast of 
Morocco, Western Sahara, and in the vicinity of the Canary and 
Cabo Verde Islands fresh to strong NE winds are occurring. 
Moderate seas are found in these waters, with the highest seas 
found where winds are fresh. Waters south of 19N are dominated by 
moderate trades and moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front extends will 
gradually dissipate as it drifts southward through tonight. High 
pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will 
support fresh trade winds south of 24N through mid week. 
Meanwhile, large N swell associated with a gale center well north 
of the region over the north central Atlantic will move through 
the waters north of 27N and east of 60W Mon night through Tue 
night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off 
northeast Florida as the high pressure shifts southeast ahead of a
front moving off the Carolinas. 

$$ 
AReinhart