000
AXNT20 KNHC 030607
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: 
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain divergent flow across the area through Friday. This will
support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable of
producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds through
Friday. The greatest risk for large accumulations of rainfall is
from Tuesday through Friday. The heavy rain may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. Flooding is also possible in areas of 
Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from recent heavy 
rain events. Please refer to products from your local weather 
service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from 11N 
southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 16W and 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 09N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. There is no significant convection based
on the latest analysis.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 11N southward, 
and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06N to 10N between 47W and 49W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 17N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is occurring over east-central Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 20N southward,
and is quasi-stationary due to interaction with an upper-level
trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near
the Nicaragua coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then
curves southwestward to 07N20W. An ITCZ continues from 07N20W to
06N31W, then from 05N34W to 07N47W and finally from 06N49W to near
the Guyana coast. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the trough from 02N to the Liberia coast between 10W and
14W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is present
near and up to 130 nm north of the ITCZ fragments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters off
the Panama coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge runs west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend
area to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds 
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen across the western Gulf, including 
the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and 2 
to 4 ft seas exist for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
for the next several days. This will support generally moderate 
to fresh E to SE winds in the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate
SE winds east of 90W, except for locally strong winds pulsing 
near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula 
tonight, then pulsing to fresh in the evenings thereafter. By the 
end of the week, the ridge may weaken which should allow winds to
diminish somewhat. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over
Central America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of 
days, reducing visibility to 3 nm at times, mainly over the 
western half of the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event. 

A surface trough near the Windward Passage is triggering widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica,
Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. Fresh to locally strong easterly
winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the south-central
basin. Gentle NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the
southwestern and northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, pressure gradient will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the central basin through early Mon, with seas
around 8 ft. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean will 
support scattered showers and tstms between the Windward Passage 
and the coast of Nicaragua, which are forecast to continue and 
amplify the next couple of days. Fresh to strong winds are also 
expected in the eastern basin Mon night as another tropical wave 
moves by.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N48W, then continues as a stationary front to at 23N71W.
A surface trough is also present over the Turks and Caicos
Islands. Aided by divergent winds related to an upper-level trough
over the Bahamas, scattered moderate convection is visible from
20N to 27N between 63W and 74W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 140 nm south of
the cold front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. 

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found
across the western Atlantic north of 20N between 57W and the
Florida/Georgia coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic
north of 20N between 25W and 57W, gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas
exist. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate N to NNE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted north of 14N between the
Africa coast and 25W. In the Tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh
ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate from 07N to 20N
between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal and
southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold/stationary front will become 
fully stationary along 25N tonight, and weaken into a surface 
trough by Mon evening. Energy associated with a convectively 
active tropical wave, currently over the western Caribbean will 
lift NNE and merge with this trough by Tue. Afterwards, the trough
will drift eastward and move to the central subtropical Atlantic 
waters Thu into Fri. Fresh to occasionally strong SW winds are 
forecast ahead of this trough as it crosses the north-central and
then eastern offshore waters. Ridging will build across the basin
Thu through Fri night.

$$

Chan