000
AXNT20 KNHC 160454
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Mar 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to develop 
in the central Atlantic late on Sun. As the system intensifies, 
gale-force winds are expected by Sun evening across the northern 
semicircle of the low, mainly N of 25N between 45W and 55W. Rough 
to very rough seas are forecast with these winds. The low will 
move NW through mid-week while weakening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N15W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N22W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the
equator E of 20W, and from 01N to 03N between 20W and 24W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters and reaches from 
southeast Louisiana to Tuxpan, Mexico. Recent satellite derived
wind data confirm the presence of fresh to strong southerly winds
ahead of the front. Combined seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft 
across the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and 6 to
9 ft seas are noted in the wake of the front. Thunderstorms ahead
of the front are moving through the lower Mississippi Valley and 
extend into the far north-central Gulf mainly N of 28N between 87W
and 90W. 

For the forecast, the front will move southeast and reach from 
the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning, and 
move E of the Gulf Sun night. Northerly winds behind the front 
will increase to fresh to strong speeds today though Mon night. 
Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the basin Mon through
mid week. As the high pressure moves toward N Florida fresh to
strong southerly return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf Mon
night into Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front is slated to
enter the Gulf region by mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean 
while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of America. This 
pattern is allowing for fresh to strong SE to S winds over the the
NW Caribbean, particularly N of 15N and W of 83W, including the 
Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. Moderate 
to fresh NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in the 
Windward Passage as well as over the south-central Caribbean and 
the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the
remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with the strongest 
winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Shallow moisture, embedded in the
trade wind flow. are noted across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southerly winds over the NW
Caribbean will diminish later today as the cold front currently 
moving across the Gulf of America reaches the Yucatan Channel by 
tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will 
follow the front forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf 
of Honduras by Mon night, and from the Windward Passage to near
Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue night
into Wed. High pressure over the central Atlantic combined with 
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to fresh to strong 
speeds at night offshore Colombia through early this week. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage and 
south of the Dominican Republic today.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated
with a developing low pressure. Refer to the Special Features
section for more details. 

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N24W and 
continues southwestward to near 22N42W, where it transitions into
a stationary frontal boundary that extends to 20N60W. Farther 
north, 1032 mb high pressure centered near 37N48W dominates the 
western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the high and the
frontal boundary supports a large area of fresh to strong E winds
N of the stationary front between 44W and 64W, where seas are in 
the 8 to 11 ft range. Fresh NE to E winds and large northerly 
swell of 8 to 13 ft is noted elsewhere north of the front. 
Moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. A short wave 
trough in the mid/upper levels is interacting with the frontal 
boundary to support scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly 
from 19N to 24N between 45W and 56W. 

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed
at 25N24W, extending a weak ridge across much of the remaining 
subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds and moderate
seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic. Higher sea heights of
8 to 10 ft are observed per altimeter data between the W coast of
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a developing low pressure over the
central Atlantic will support gale-force winds east of 60W by Sun
night. These conditions will likely last through Mon night, then 
diminishing to fresh to strong speeds through Tue morning. This 
pattern will also support rough to very seas east of 70W through 
mid week. Farther west, a strong cold front will push off the SE 
United States coast late Sun night preceded and followed by strong
to near-gale force winds and rough seas. The front will reach 
from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, 
and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. 

$$
GR