000
AXNT20 KNHC 111736
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Dec 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the 
western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front over the NW Gulf will
continue to quickly move southeastward across the basin, exiting 
the region this evening. Strong to gale-force winds and rapidly 
building seas to 19 ft can be expected in the wake of the front 
today. An observation from Veracruz, Mexico indicated N winds of 
30 kt gusting to 45 kt at 1548 UTC. Buoy 42055 also observed wave 
heights of 18 to 19 ft at 1350 UTC and 1450 UTC today. These 
hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W to E 
tonight into Thu. 

Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will continue over
the NE Florida offshore waters today ahead of a rapidly 
approaching cold front forecast to enter the basin this afternoon.
Frequent gusts to gale-force out of the S and SW and building 
seas to 10 ft are expected behind the front today. Winds will turn
to the NW behind the front and frequent gusts to gale- force will
continue this evening before winds slowly diminish to fresh to 
strong speeds on Thu. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near 07N11W 
then extends westward to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to
03N25W and then to 00N49W. Widely scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ 
between 15W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the  
Gale Warning currently in effect.

At 1200 UTC, a strong cold front extended from the Florida Big 
Bend region to Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to gale-force northerly 
winds follow the front across much of the Gulf along with very 
rough seas up to 19 ft, strongest conditions occurring in the SW 
basin. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and slight to moderate 
winds are ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf. Aside from the 
wind and seas, scattered moderate convection is occurring ahead 
of the front in the Bay of Campeche, as well as near the Yucatan 
Channel and in the far eastern Gulf along the west coast of 
Florida.

For the forecast, a Gale Warning remains in effect for the 
western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front extending from the 
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico will exit the Gulf 
region this evening. Strong to gale-force winds and very rough 
seas follow the front. Expect the strongest winds, in the 35 to 40
kt range in the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, today. Seas
should peak 18 or 19 ft with the strongest winds this afternoon. 
These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W 
to E tonight into Thu, then high pressure settling into the 
northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the 
week, and into the weekend. However, fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough seas will persist over the SE Gulf and the Straits of 
Florida through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed along the coasts of Belize and the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and is fueling the development of
scattered moderate convection from 17N to the Yucatan Channel and
west of 84W. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores 
High well north of the area and lower pressures over South America
is forcing fresh to strong ENE to E trades across the central 
Caribbean and moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the eastern basin 
while gentle to moderate easterlies are occurring in the NW 
region. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across the central and SW Caribbean and
3 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the 
Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades and 
rough seas over the central Caribbean, including offshore 
Colombia. The high pressure will continue to shift eastward over 
the central Atlantic through tonight allowing for the trades to 
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds, except off the coast of 
Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will persist through Fri 
night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this evening, and 
become stationary from east-central Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a 
Dios, Nicaragua Thu night while weakening. Fresh to strong 
northeast winds behind the front will diminish some on Fri, 
except in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage where fresh to
strong NE winds will continue through Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the  
Gale Warning currently in effect.

Strong high pressure anchored by a 1039 mb high over the NW 
Atlantic extends a broad ridge across the entire subtropical 
Atlantic waters. The ridge is being dissected by an elongated 
surface trough that extends from 31N48W to 09N55W, which is 
supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from
18N to 30N between 45W and 56W, with widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 09N to 18N between 50W and 58W. Aside
from the convective activity, fresh to strong E winds and seas up to
10 ft are also ongoing either side of the trough between 40W and 
65W. Otherwise, fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas
are over the NE Florida offshore waters, ahead of a cold front 
moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds and
moderate seas dominate the Atlantic E of 40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds will 
continue to affect the NE Florida offshore waters today ahead of 
the next cold front forecast to enter the basin by early this 
afternoon. Frequent gusts to gale-force and rough seas are 
expected ahead of the front while minimal gale force winds and 
rough seas will follow the front through this evening. The front 
will reach from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and western tonight, 
become stationary from near 31N69W to east-central Cuba by Thu 
night, then gradually weaken into Fri. Strong high pressure in the
wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient against an 
approaching surface trough from the east. In addition, strong high
pressure also follows the trough. This weather pattern will lead 
to the continuation of strong to near gale-force winds across most
of the region through the weekend. 

$$
Adams