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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W, to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W, to 
06N28W, to 07N40W, and to 07N53W. Precipitation: widely 
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 06N 
to 10N between 36w and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong 
is elsewhere from 15N southward from 53W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of 
Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic 
Ocean, and the Gulf of Mexico, with a surface ridge along 
27N/28N between 70W and 90W.

A cold front passes through the south central coast of 
Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast, and westward, into 
west Texas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the 
north of the line that runs from the deep south of Texas to 
north central Florida. More broken to overcast multilayered 
clouds and possible rainshowers are to the north of the cold 
front.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on 
Saturday night. It will reach quickly from the western Florida 
Panhandle to near 25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche on 
Sunday evening; and to 
the southeast of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. The front 
will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building 
seas. Gale-force winds are likely in the extreme SW Gulf of 
Mexico late on Monday. The wind speeds will diminish and the sea 
heights will subside on Tuesday. High pressure in the wake of 
the front will shift eastward, from Tuesday night through 
Wednesday night, allowing for moderate to fresh east to 
southeast wind flow to set up across the area. Another cold 
front is expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on 
Wednesday night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 
77W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong 
is from Hispaniola westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/11N from 72W in NW Venezuela, 
beyond Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally 
strong is from 13N southward from 72W westward. An upper level 
trough extends from Hispaniola to the northern coast of 
Colombia. 

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin 
into early next week, except for northeast winds pulsing to 
strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and into the 
early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea on Monday evening. The front will extend from 
eastern Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras on Tuesday 
afternoon, and become stationary through Wednesday night. The 
front will be followed by fresh to locally strong northwest 
winds and building seas. The winds and the seas are expected to 
diminish on Tuesday night. Scattered rainshowers and 
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near 
28N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate 
and isolated strong is from 340 nm to 640 nm of the center in 
the NE quadrant, from 24N northward. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be only marginally conducive for development 
this weekend, as the low pressure center moves northeastward, in 
front of an approaching frontal system. The system is expected 
to become absorbed by this frontal system, in the north central 
Atlantic Ocean, by early next week.

A surface trough is along 55W/58W, from the coast of Guyana to 
20N. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and 
isolated strong is within 145 nm to the east of the surface 
trough from 12N to 15N. 

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to 
Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves 
across the NW part of the area. Southerly winds will 
increase over the NW waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong 
cold front approaches. The front will move off NE Florida Mon, 
reach from near 31N77W to South Florida Mon evening, from near 
31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by early 
Tue evening and weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to eastern 
Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building 
seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 25N and W of 
70W. Winds diminish late Tue, with the highest seas shifting to 
northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are 
expected ahead of the front. 

$$
mt