AXNT20 KNHC 031714
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 3 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
A tight pressure gradient between a strong 1044 mb high pressure
centered to the SE of Nova Scotia, and a quasi-stationary surface
trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting
strong to near gale-force NE winds and very rough seas of 12 to 16
ft N of 25N between 47W and 60W. These hazardous marine conditions
will persist across the forecast waters east of 60W through Mon.
Afterward, winds and seas will gradually decrease over much of the
area through the week.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the Liberia/Sierra
Leone border near 07N11W then extends southwestward to 02N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is present from 04N to 06N E of 13W to the coast
of Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to
04N between 07W and 12W, and from 00N to 04N between 28W and 40W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure centered SE of Nova Scotia extends a ridge
SW into the Gulf, supporting light to gentle E to SE winds and
slight seas basin-wide. Moist air moving over cooler waters along
the northern Gulf is resulting in patchy fog from Corpus Christi
to Tallahassee, Florida adjacent waters, with the foggy conditions
expected through late this morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen over the SE Gulf.
For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the
central and eastern Gulf tonight into Tue evening, between high
pressure over the Carolinas and a surface trough that will move
across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will
resume across the basin Tue night through Thu.
Strong high pressure of 1044 mb to the SE of Nova Scotia extends
a ridge SW into the northern Caribbean. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and the Colombian low continue to support fresh
to strong NE to E winds across the central Caribbean with strong
to near gale-force winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas over
this region are 5 to 7 ft, except 8 to 10 ft over Colombia
adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are
ongoing over the E part of the basin while SE winds of the same
magnitude are over the NW Caribbean, strongest in the Gulf of
Honduras. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade
wind flow, are moving westward across the basin producing isolated
to scattered passing showers.
For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will
support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-
central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds in the north-central Caribbean will
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere.
Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a
Significant Swell Event.
Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section,
moderate to fresh E to SE winds are ongoing E of the Bahamas to
65W along with rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. West of 75W,
winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with slight to moderate
seas. A surface trough is analyzed along 48W N of 21N. A weak low
pressure center of 1016 mb is along the trough axis near 26N48W.
Some shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with these two
features. East of the surface trough, a tight pressure gradient
is present between a strong high pressure of 1032 mb centered just
S of the Azores and a trough over NW Africa. This is resulting in
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas
extending as far as 13N, including the Cape Verde Islands. Over
the tropical Atlantic W of 40W, winds are gentle to moderate with
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Higher seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted just NE of
the Leeward Islands.
For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near-gale force NE winds and
rough to very rough seas associated with a surface trough over
the central subtropical Atlantic waters will persist across the
offshore waters east of 60W through Mon. Afterward, winds and seas
will gradually decrease over much of the area through the week.
Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida by mid week ahead of
the next cold front.