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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 081802
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
205 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa along 19W, 
from 19N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 13N between 15W-24W. A band of moderate to strong 
convection is also present southwest of the wave from the 
Equator extending north to 10N near the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are from 02N-06N between 36W-43W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
present in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N southward, 
moving westward 15 knots. The tropical wave is moving through a 
transition area, from upper level anticyclonic wind flow that is 
to the east of Hispaniola, toward upper level cyclonic wind flow 
that covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W, to 12N33W to 08N50W. The ITCZ continues from 
08N50W to 09N54W, then west of the tropical wave from 09N58W to 
the coast of Brazil. Aside from the convection associated to the 
tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 
180 nm to the north and south of the monsoon trough, and 
scattered moderate convection north of the ITCZ from 09N-13N 
between 58W to 66W impacting the ABC islands in the southern 
Caribbean Sea. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 27N85W and remains in 
Control across the basin. A trough is observed in the Bay of 
Campeche from 22N94W to 18N94W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted south of 22N to 18N and west of 90W. 
This is enhancing an outflow boundary moving south to north near 
24N. To the east, scattered showers are noted near the coast of 
Louisiana and northern Florida. 

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will allow for generally 
light to gentle winds across the area through Wed. Stronger winds
are expected in the eastern Bay of Campeche and near the Yucatan
peninsula at night due to local effects. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the
south-central Caribbean through Wed. Strongest winds will be
tonight and Sun as a tropical wave moves across the region.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere. 

An upper-level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 
35N60W southwestward across Jamaica to the border of Nicaragua 
and Costa Rica. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the 
Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola westward. Upper level anticyclonic 
wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered 
moderate to locally strong covers the southeast between the 
Lesser Antilles to 68W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is 
also noted along the coast of Panam, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and 
Honduras. ASCAT data indicate fresh to strong trades across the 
south-central Caribbean.  

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central
Caribbean through Wed. Strongest winds will be tonight and Sun
as a tropical wave moves across the region. Moderate to fresh 
winds are expected elsewhere. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 35N60W cyclonic circulation 
Center to the Windward Passage. A 1019 mb surface low is noted 
Near 28N72W with a surface trough extending from 30N71W to 
24N76W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity 
of the trough and from 26N-29N between 65W-70W. Elsewhere, a 
1023 mb high pressure remains in control north of 20N.

On the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected across the 
northern waters through Wed. Moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 23N from Great Bahama Bank to north of 
Hispaniola.

$$
Torres