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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 232354
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2319 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 12N southward, 
moving west around 10 knots. The wave is enhancing scattered 
moderate convection along the ITCZ from 06N-01N between 36W-30W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of 
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N17W to 03N33W, then west of the tropical wave from 03N34W to
the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate to
strong convection is seen along and south of the monsoon trough 
and ITCZ from 06N-02N, between 26W and the Ivory Coast. 


GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure located in the Southeast U.S. near 32N85W
is ridging across the basin. Light to gentle easterly winds are 
seen in the eastern Gulf with moderate to fresh east-southeasterly
winds are in the western Gulf. Smoke continues to be noted on
visible satellite imagery in the Bay of Campeche and the western
Gulf with some observations in deep south Texas reporting hazy
skies.

High pressure extends from the west Atlantic into the NE Gulf and
will maintain fresh to strong SE winds across the western Gulf 
through Friday. Winds will diminish and become more easterly 
across most of the basin this weekend as high pressure reorganizes
across the west Atlantic and builds west along 32N into SE 
Louisiana. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy 
skies in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche the next few days. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through northern Costa Rica near 10N83W
to northern Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate convection 
continues across areas from southern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa 
Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
is also seen across the Greater Antilles, particularly from 
eastern Cuba to Puerto Rico. Showers are also seen moving across 
the Lesser Antilles. The ASCAT pass from earlier today showed 
light to gentle trades in the eastern Caribbean with moderate to 
fresh trades in the west-central Caribbean off the Nicaraguan 
coast. Moderate to fresh trades are also seen in the northern 
portion of the basin.

High pressure across the NW Atlantic will maintain fresh trade 
winds across most of the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras through Saturday. Broad low pressure across Central 
America and the adjacent eastern Pacific will persist through this
weekend to produce active weather across the SW Caribbean. A 
tropical wave will move into the tropical Atlantic waters by late
Sunday.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N50W and
extends westward to 27N66W to the northern Bahamas near 26N77W.
The tail-end of the boundary off the Florida coast is dying,
beginning from 26N77W to 30N81W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen within 50 nm of the front east of 62W. A
surface trough is also observed from 26N66W to northern Dominican
Republic near 20N71W. An upper level low is centered near 23N68W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near this feature
from 26N-20N between 65W-70W. Otherwise, the remainder of the
basin is seeing surface ridging from a 1027 mb high pressure
located near 39N20W. 

The cold front will continue to sink southward through Friday, 
then stall and slowly dissipate along 25N from Friday night 
through Sunday. Ther broad inverted trough will persist north of 
Hispaniola through Friday. A second cold front will sink 
southward into the northern waters on Saturday morning and 
gradually merge with remnants of old cold front along 24N to 25N 
Sunday night through Monday.


For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR