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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 271040

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.


...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant 
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. 
Please refer to the local meteorological service for more 


A tropical wave extends across the east tropical Atlantic analyzed
along 26W from 11N-00N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered 
showers are seen within the vicinity of this wave axis. 

A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic,
with axis along 57W and from 14N-04S. The wave is moving at 
around 15 kt. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are 
noted along the wave's axis. 


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N27W to 01S44W. Scattered 
showers are present along the monsoon trough mainly from 03N-09N 
between 13W-23W, in addition scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is seen from 00N-05N and east of 10W to the Ivory 
Coast. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the ITCZ 
near the coast of Brazil from 02S-03N between 36W-44W. 


Surface ridging continues across the basin from a 1019 mb high 
pressure over Mississippi/Alabama border near 32N88W. Fair 
weather prevails across the Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts light
to gentle easterly winds in the northeast Gulf, with a 1019 mb
high centered near 28N84W. Moderate east-southeasterly winds is
noted across the rest of the basin with the exception of fresh 
northeast winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to 
fresh winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues
over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W.
There are two surface trough in the basin, one along the eastern
Gulf along 82W from 29N-25N. The second trough is located on the 
Bay of Campeche. At this time, scattered showers are possible with
both troughs. 

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and northeast Gulf will 
maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow over the western Gulf 
and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through Thu. A trough 
forming over the Yucatan Peninsula each day and moving into the 
southwestern Gulf late at night and in the mornings will support 
locally fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Smoke from 
fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of the
southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the early 
part of the week.


Scattered moderate to strong convection continues across the 
southwest Caribbean off the Central American and Colombian coasts.
See the above section for more details on the excessive rainfall 
threat over Central America. 

Scattered moderate convection continues south of Cuba extending to
Jamaica and Hispaniola. Meanwhile, isolated showers are moving 
across portions of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades 
prevail across most of the Caribbean, with light winds in the Bay 
of Honduras and fresh to strong winds north of Colombia. 

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. 
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much 
of the western Caribbean through at least the early part of the 
week. A tropical wave along 58W will move across the rest of the 
Tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon, then across the eastern 
Caribbean Mon afternoon through Tue, then across the central 
Caribbean Tue night through Wed night while it loses its identity.


Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves 
currently moving across the basin. 

A cold front enters the west-central Atlantic near 31N45W and 
extends westward to 24N754, and transitions to a stationary front
at that point to the southern Bahamas near 21N74W. Then it begins
to dissipate as it curves north to 30N76W. Ahead of the front, a 
trough extends from 26N48W to 18N55W. Showers are seen along the 
front and the trough, particularly north of 24N. Further east, 
surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. 

A cold front extends from 31N46W to 25N55W. A stationary front 
continues to 24N65W to 22N74W. The stationary front will dissipate
by late Mon night. A high pressure ridge will build behind the 
front along roughly 28N through Wed, then shift slightly northward
late Wed through Fri night. 

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