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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311036
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A developing low pressure  area along a tropical wave is 
centered near 15N69W with an estimated MSLP of 1007 mb. The low 
and wave are moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous scattered to 
strong convection is evident near the low, from 13N to 18N 
between 68W and 72W. This system is slowly becoming better 
organized, and conditions appear conducive for further 
development. A tropical depression is likely to form this 
weekend as the system moves westward across the central and 
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is 
expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC 
islands and Jamaica this weekend. The chance of tropical cyclone 
formation during the next 48 hours is high. Please refer to the 
website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones for more details. 

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Heavy rainfall is possible 
across parts of Central America, from late this weekend into 
early next week, particularly in western Panama, Costa Rica, 
Nicaragua and Honduras. Flash flooding and mudslides may be 
possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. The rainfall threat may be 
enhanced by possible tropical cyclone development of the low 
pressure area associated with a tropical wave along 69W. Please 
refer to bulletins and forecasts provided by your national 
meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave  is along 29W from 11N southward 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
associated with the ITCZ is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 22N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. A low is analyzed along the wave axis
near 15N69W. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details on this wave and low.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave  is along 73W from 21N southward, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 12N to 17N between 72W and 75W. Model guidance shows 
this wave is likely to merge in the central Caribbean Sea with 
the tropical wave currently along 69W, during the next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 09N13W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 
04N30W, to 03N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 08N between 09W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front is slowly exiting the Gulf of Mexico, and
is analyzed from Miami Florida to the Yucatan Channel. Isolated
showers are in the extreme SE part of the Gulf, associated with 
the frontal boundary.  

Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue in the Bay of 
Campeche this morning. A strong cold front will move into the 
northern Gulf on Sunday, extend from southern Florida to the 
Yucatan peninsula on Monday, the move south of the area Tuesday. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across most of the 
region Sunday night through Tues. Strong winds may linger in the 
SE Gulf on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 69W, from 22N southward, moving 
westward at 15 knots. A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave 
axis near 15N69W. This disturbance is slowly becoming better 
organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form this 
weekend as the system moves westward into the western Caribbean 
Sea. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 
hours is high. Please the Special Features section above for 
more details.

A second tropical wave is about 240 nm west of the first wave 
along 73W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
These two waves are expected to merge during the next 24 hours 
near 75W. 

The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the eastern 
Pacific Ocean is along 09N to 11N, from 73W in northern Colombia 
across Panama into Costa Rica. Widely scattered moderate showers 
are noted south of 13N southward and from 73W westward. Little 
change in the position of the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean 
is expected through Sunday.

Developing low pressure along a tropical wave in the central 
Caribbean will shift westward into the western Caribbean, with 
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. A tropical 
depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves 
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Heavy 
rainfall is possible in Central America early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Bermuda to Miami Florida. Isolated 
showers are evident within 180 nm northwest of the front, and 
scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side 
of a line from 32N63W to 22N76W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean 
from 20N northward, east of the cold front, associated with an 
elongated ridge of high pressure. Generally fair weather 
conditions prevail across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, from 18N 
to 32N between 38W and 62W.

The existing cold front from Bermuda to Miami will stall and 
dissipate from 32N55W to the Florida Keys later today. A strong 
cold front will sweep across the forecast area Sunday night 
through Tuesday, with strong northerly winds and building seas 
expected behind the front.

$$
Mundell