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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 171723

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


A tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 28W and south of 10N,
moving west at 15 kt. Latest scatterometer data depicts a 
windshift in the area and scattered showers are noted in satellite
imagery between 26W-33W.

A tropical wave is located in the central Caribbean with axis 
along 74W and south of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This 
position corresponds with an area of enhanced moisture seen on 
total precipitable water imagery. Scattered showers have developed
this morning in the vicinity of the wave, mainly between 72W-77W.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N17W 
to 12N24W. The ITCZ is analyzed west of a tropical wave near
03N31W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
05N between 32W-50W.


A 1017 mb high pressure located over the central Gulf near 27N90W
and dominates the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh 
NW winds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, gentle 
to moderate southerlies in the western Gulf, and light breezes in
the eastern Gulf. Buoys are reporting seas of 2-4 ft in the 
western Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the central Gulf will 
maintain gentle to moderate S to SE winds over the western half of
the basin and light to gentle variable wind across the eastern 
Gulf into mid week. SE winds will increase to moderate to fresh 
speeds over the western Gulf tonight through Sat night, expanding
to the eastern Gulf Thu night through Sat as low pressure 
develops along Central America and the Bermuda high extends into 
portions of the E Gulf. 


The pressure gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and 
lower pressure over South America is maintaining moderate to fresh
easterlies in the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to 
gentle winds prevail in the NW Caribbean, where a surface trough 
is analyzed along 83W and north of 15N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft prevail
in the south central Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft over the eastern portion
and 2 to 4 ft in the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are observed in the SW Caribbean along the 
monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will 
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the east 
and central Caribbean through mid week, with fresh to strong winds
pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. Winds and seas 
across the basin may increase through late week as the ridge 
strengthens and broad low pressure forms along Central America. 
Strongest winds expected to be over the northwest and south-
central Caribbean Thu night through the remainder weekend.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form
over northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and
seas across the basin may increase through late week as this  low
forms and the ridge north of the area strengthens. Moist onshore 
flow may also promote heavy rainfall across northern Central 
America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late week.


A mid-level trough is moving over the western Atlantic, causing 
scattered showers over the central Bahamas and area between 60W
and 75W. To the east, a 1024 mb high in the central Atlantic near
27N51W is causing gentle to moderate SE flow across the majority 
of the sub-tropical western Atlantic, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. 
In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N24W to 
27N36W to 30N50W. Winds are gentle on both sides of the front, 
but 8-9 ft swell is observed behind the front. Moderate to fresh 
persist south of 20N, with 8-9 ft seas south of 12N between 47W 
and the Lesser Antilles. The remainder of the basin is dominated 
by light to gentle winds and 4-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge along 29N will 
shift east today ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the 
north. The front will move over the waters north of 28N between 
northeast Florida and 55W through late Wed. Weak ridging will 
build again over the region later in the week, supporting gentle 
to moderate winds through Sat night, except for moderate to fresh 
winds N of Hispaniola and the Great Bahama Bank Fri and Sat.