AXNT20 KNHC 032248
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 4 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front currently extends from 31N49W
to 26N59W. The pressure gradient between the front and 1008 mb
low pressure centered near 24N50W is supporting gale force NE
winds N of 30N between 51W and 55W. Seas are currently 16-20 ft
in N swell. The cold front will continue to move southeast
towards the low pressure. The low is expected to remain
stationary and deepen over the next 24 hours. Gales will prevail
through tonight before diminishing to near-gale force on Sun.
Seas will prevail around 13-18 ft on Sunday, then slowly
subsiding on Monday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
METEO-FRANCE Developing Gale near Canary Islands: A deepening
low pressure system is going to support gale-force winds in the
areas of Madeira, Irving and Canarias starting on 04/00Z. These
conditions will continue through 05/00Z. For more details, please
refer to the following website: http://www.gmdss.org/II.html.
The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 10N15W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to the coast of Guyana
near 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N and
E of 25W, and from 05N to 10N between between 18W and 22W and
from 05N to 09N between 25W and 58W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging dominates the basin, except for a weak trough in
the W Bay of Campeche near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Light
and variable winds prevail in the basin N of 27N. Gentle to
moderate E winds prevail S of 27N, locally fresh in the Straits
of Florida. Seas are 3-5 across most of the Gulf, with 5-7 ft
seas noted in the SE Gulf, including within the Yucatan Channel
and Straits of Florida.
For the forecast, a cold front will approach the far northern
Gulf tonight, then stall Sun and dissipate Sun night. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front and dominate much of
Moderate to fresh NNE winds continue in the central and western
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades in the eastern
Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin.
For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between building high
pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over
Colombia will support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the
area through tonight, with areas of strong winds in the lee of
the Greater Antilles, the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia.
Winds will then slowly diminish for the start of next week.
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic.
A cold front currently extends from 31N49W to 26N59W. A shear
line continues from 26N59W to 20N72W. Outside of the Gale
Warning, fresh to strong NE winds are noted to the north of both
the front and the shear line. Strong to near-gale force NE winds
are N of 25N between 45W and the cold front, while gentle NNE
winds are S of the shear line. Seas greater than 8 ft are N of a
line from 31N45W to 21N69W to 27N78W. Seas greater than 12 ft
are N of 26N between 50W and 73W. Highest seas are in the Gale
Warning Area. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N to 29N
between 56W and 65W and from 26N to 31N between 43W and 50W.
In the east Atlantic, a cold front extends from the Canary
Islands to 25N24W to 31N39W. Moderate N winds are behind the
front. Seas behind this front are 8 to 11 ft in long period N
Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to moderate trades prevail
with 5-7 ft seas.
For the forecast W of 55W, the Gale Warned cold front will move
east and out of the area by tonight while the shear line
dissipates. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
lead to strong NE to E winds across much of the forecast area
into Sun. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact the
waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with
rough seas through the start of next week.