000
AXNT20 KNHC 180507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jan 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0505 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 00N25W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N25W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 03N and between 31W and 37W and also south of
04N and west of 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak low pressure near the Lower Keys of Florida continues to
lose strength and no deep convection is noted across the Gulf of
Mexico. However, a few showers are noted off the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are found
in the western and northern Gulf waters, especially west of a line
from Panama City, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico. Seas in these waters
are 4-6 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also captured 
fresh to locally strong SE winds in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh, to at times strong, southwest winds over the 
northern and western Gulf will continue through Sat as a warm 
front lifts northward ahead of developing low pressure in the 
south-central United States. A rather sharp cold front associated
with the aforementioned low is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sat 
morning, followed by fresh northwest to north winds will initially
follow the front. These winds are forecast to increase to strong 
speeds by early Sun as the pressure gradient tightens between the 
front and building strong high pressure over the central U.S. Near
gale to gale-force winds will be possible on Sun over the 
southwestern Gulf offshore of Tampico and offshore Veracruz. Rough
seas are expected to accompany the winds. Looking ahead, low 
pressure is expected to form over the NW Gulf early next week, 
with an attendant potent cold front. The low will track eastward 
through mid-week dragging the cold front across the entire basin. 
Near gale to gale force north to northeast winds are expected to 
move into most of the northern and western Gulf early next week. 
Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. Mariners 
are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside 
of the gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of
strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with 
successive frontal systems. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pockets of low-level moisture moving across the eastern and 
central Caribbean Sea result in a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms, with the strongest convection occurring near the 
San Andres and Providencia Islands and the coasts of SE Nicaragua
and NE Costa Rica. A 1026 mb high pressure system centered between
Puerto Rico and Bermuda forces fresh to strong easterly trade 
winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean, including 
the Windward Passage. This was captured by recent satellite- 
derived wind data. Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. The strongest 
winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. In the 
remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh E to NE winds will
prevail across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean
through this weekend, with locally strong winds developing each 
night offshore of Colombia, through the Atlantic Passages and 
downwind of Hispaniola. Locally rough seas are expected near 
strong winds. Long-period east swell will promote rough seas 
through the Atlantic Passages tonight through the middle of next 
week. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds will develop
Sat night in the northwestern Caribbean ahead of a cold front 
moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, 
fresh to strong east winds and building seas will occur over much 
of the basin early next week ahead of the aforementioned cold 
front approaching the northwestern Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge located between Puerto Rico and Bermuda dominates
the SW North Atlantic, forcing moderate to fresh easterly winds
south of 23N and between 55W and 70W and similar strength but SE
winds west of 70W, especially in the Bahamian and off NE Florida
waters. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong
westerly winds north of 29N and between 45W and 63W. Seas in the
waters described are 8-12 ft. A cold front enters the tropical 
Atlantic near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 24N47W, 
followed by a shear line to the Leeward Islands. Moderate SW winds
and seas of 8-10 ft are noted north of 27N and between 30W and 
43W. 

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1031
mb high pressure system centered over the Iberian peninsula. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong easterly trade
winds south of 22N. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast W of 55W, rough to very rough seas, associated 
with a pair of cold fronts in the central Atlantic, will prevail 
north of 20N and east of 65W tonight, and rough seas will be 
reinforced north of 28N and east of 75W by swell from complex 
storm systems north of the area. Fresh to strong west to northwest
winds associated with a trough extending from the aforementioned 
lows will occur north of 28N and east of 72W tonight, with winds 
expanding farther east as the system treks eastward. Elsewhere 
south of 22N, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through 
early next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the 
Windward Islands at times. Fresh to locally strong south winds and
rough seas are expected to develop off the coast of Florida and 
through the northern Bahamas late tonight as low pressure forms 
off the coast of the southeastern United States before the low 
moves northeastward this weekend. Another cold front that is 
expected to move into the northwestern waters on Sun will promote 
fresh to strong southwest to northwest winds and rough seas north 
of 27N. Looking ahead, a very strong cold front is expected to 
move off the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, followed by 
strong to near-gale force north winds and building seas north of 
Cuba and west of 70W. 
 
$$
Delgado