AXNT20 KNHC 032329
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 4 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 19.6N 64.9W at 03/2100
UTC or 75 nm N of St. Thomas, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted within
135 nm of the center in the SW semicircle, including over the
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 24N between 59W
and 65W, and from 11N to 16N between 60W and 65W, including over
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. Peak seas
are estimated at 18 to 20 ft just E of the center. The 12 ft seas
extend outward 210 nm E of the center and 30 nm W of the center. A
turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Wed, followed by a
faster motion toward the north on Thu and Fri. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move away from the Virgin
Islands. Philippe will then approach Bermuda Thu night and Fri.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic
coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 14N
southward, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 13N between 18W and 34W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 51W from 17N
southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen from 06N to 14N between 45W and 51W.
The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 14N17W to 08N29W. The ITCZ continues from 08N29W to
06N40W to 06N47W. Aside from the convection mentioned above,
scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 11.5N between the
west coast of Africa and 17W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Fresh E winds and 5-7 ft seas continue over most of the Gulf,
mainly north of a line from Cuba to 23N91W to the middle Texas
coast. Over the far SW Gulf, Gentle winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail.
A surface trough near the coast of Texas is inducing scattered
moderate convection north of 24N between 91W and 95W. There are
also a few showers south of 20N between 94.5W and 95.5W in the SW
Bay of Campeche near another surface trough.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
supporting fresh E winds across most of the Gulf through Wed
evening. Light to gentle winds are then forecast Thu through Fri
evening. A cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Fri
night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate
seas, as the front progresses southward across most of the Gulf of
Mexico into Sun.
Tropical Storm Philippe in affecting the extreme NE Caribbean Sea
north of 17N and east of 67W. Please refer to the Special
Features section for details about Tropical Storm Philippe.
Elsewhere a surface trough and weak upper-level troughing over the
NW Caribbean are aiding scattered thunderstorms near and over
eastern Cuba and Jamaica, as well as inland over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered strong tstorms are along the NW coast of
Venezuela and N coast of Colombia. Isolated showers and tstorms
are elsewhere across the basin. Outside of Philippe's influence,
mainly light to gentle winds prevail with 1-3 ft seas. In the
Yucatan Channel, moderate NE winds and 4-5 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to 20.4N
65.4W Wed morning, 22.0N 66.1W Wed afternoon, 23.8N 66.6W Thu
morning, 26.2N 66.6W Thu afternoon, and 29.2N 66.0W Fri morning.
Rough seas in the NE Caribbean passages generated by Philippe
will start to subside on Wed. Light to gentle trades will be over
the basin through the next few days, except for moderate to fresh
southerly winds in the eastern Caribbean through Wed.
Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Philippe.
A cold front continues to press eastward across the western
Atlantic, extending from 31N56.5W to 25N70W to near Havana, Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 19N to 31N between
52W and 64W, and from eastern Cuba through the central Bahamas.
Fresh NE winds and 7-9 ft seas prevail north of the NW Bahamas,
and east of northern and central Florida. Mainly moderate winds
and 6-8 ft seas prevail outside of Philippe, between 50W and a
line extending from 31N68W to 23N79W. Weak ridging prevails across
the eastern half of the Atlantic, with the weakest winds along
25N. Fresh SW winds and 6-8 ft seas are N of 29N between 40W and
51W. In the tropical latitudes, fresh trades and 6-7 ft seas
prevail from 10N to 22N between 30W and 55W.
For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to
20.4N 65.4W Wed morning, 22.0N 66.1W Wed afternoon, 23.8N 66.6W
Thu morning, 26.2N 66.6W Thu afternoon, 29.2N 66.0W Fri morning,
and will be N of the area near 32.2N 65.7W Fri afternoon. The cold
front extending from 31N56.5W to western Cuba will continue
progressing eastward N of 29N until moving east of 55W on Wed. S
of 29N, the frontal boundary will dissipate tonight into Wed, but
fresh to strong northeast winds will continue north of the
Bahamas through early Wed morning before diminishing.