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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 180525

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0510 UTC.


A broad 1010 mb low pressure area near 18N54W is producing
disorganized showers and tstorms from 15N-20N between 48W-55W.
Strong winds near 25 kt extend outward several hundred nm in the
NE quadrant of the low. A tropical or subtropical depression 
could form during the next couple of days while it moves 
northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The 
disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after 
midweek and further development is not expected by that time. See 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website for more details. 
The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is medium.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 15N southward,
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave from

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 20N southward
across Puerto Rico, moving W at 5-10 kt. A weak surface trough is 
associated with this wave. Isolated showers are within 90 nm on 
either side of the tropical wave from 13N-20N.


The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through 
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N31W, then continues W
of a tropical wave from 02N32W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-10N between the tropical wave along 32W and
the coast of Africa.


A 1017 mb surface high is centered just offshore Freeport Texas
near 28.5N95W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the W
Gulf. Moderate N winds cover the E Gulf. The high pressure over
the W Gulf will dominate through the early part of the week. A 
rather weak front will move across the eastern Gulf this afternoon
through Tue, with the high shifting E in its wake. Fresh to 
strong SE return flow will become established off the Texas coast 
by mid-week before weakening some Thu and Thu night. A stronger 
cold front will move into the western Gulf Fri and Fri night. 


A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean to the Turks and
Caicos to the Windward Passage near 20N75W. A surface trough then
extends from 20N75W to Jamaica to the NE coast of Nicaragua near
14N84W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis.
Northwest of the trough axis, moderate N winds cover the NW
Caribbean. The trough will become stationary and diffuse early 
this morning. A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Puerto Rico 
will weaken through the early part of the week. 


A 996 mb low is near 33N72W. A cold front extends from a triple
point associated with this low near 37N69W to 32N68W to 26N69W to
the Turks and Caicos Islands to the eastern tip of Cuba. Isolated
to scattered moderate convection is seen north of 27N between 63W
and the cold front. Similar convection is north of 30N between
58W-61W and north of 31N between 67W-70W. Fresh to near gale force
winds are north of 26N between 65W-80W. To the east, a 1028 mb 
high near 33N27W extends surface ridging over the E Atlantic.

Fresh to near gale force winds will diminish behind the W Atlantic
cold front today. Large seas NE of the Bahamas and behind the 
front will subside through the early part of the week. Scattered 
tstms within 120 nm ahead of the front will persist early this
morning. The front will stall and weaken from roughly Bermuda to 
the N coast of Haiti through today. A couple of weak and dry cold
fronts will sweep across the western Atlantic Mon through Wed.
High pressure will build in across the area Wed through Fri night.