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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 150551
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE, at 15/0300 UTC, is near 
18.3N 57.4W. JOSEPHINE is moving toward the WNW, or 300 degrees, 
14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The 
maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 
knots. JOSEPHINE should pass far enough to the northeast of the 
Leeward Islands during the weekend in order to prevent major 
impacts. Please, monitor the progress of JOSEPHINE if you are in 
the area of the Leeward Islands, until the storm has passed 
completely away from that area. It is possible that locally 
heavy rainfall may reach the areas of the northern Leeward 
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as JOSEPHINE 
passes to the northeast of that area. It is possible that 
isolated minor flooding may happen in Puerto Rico through 
Monday. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters 
is within 240 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Please read 
the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the 
Forecast/Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm KYLE, at 15/0300 UTC, is 38.3N 
70.0W, or about 215 nm/400 km to the ESE of Atlantic City in New 
Jersey. KYLE is moving ENE, or 065 degrees, 14 knots. The 
estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum 
sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm of the center 
in the southern semicircle. 
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the 
Forecast/Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the 
monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 22N 
southward, moving westward 15 knots. 
An area of low pressure is expected to form, in association with 
this wave and the monsoon trough, in the next day or two, to the 
west of Central America. The atmospheric conditions are 
conducive for development. It is likely that a tropical 
depression or storm may form during this weekend or early next 
week, while the system moves west-northwestward, to the south of 
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Heavy rainfall is possible 
across Central America during this weekend.
Current precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 06N 
to 10N between 73W and 77W, covering parts of Colombia and its 
coastal plains and coastal waters, and sections of the 
Colombia/Venezuela border near NW Venezuela. Widely scattered to 
scattered strong in clusters covers the SW corner of the 
Caribbean Sea, and interior sections of Panama and southern 
Costa Rica, from 12N southward from 77W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of 
Senegal near 15N17W, to 15N21W 14N33W 12N37W. The ITCZ is along 
09N40W 09N50W 12N57W 13N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is 
within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on  either side of 
the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner 
of the Gulf of Mexico, near 22N98W, along the coast of Mexico. 
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 
27N southward from 90W westward. A tropical wave is along 
98W/99W from 21N southward, moving westward through the parts of 
Mexico, and mostly in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Broken to 
overcast multilayered convective debris clouds, and possibly 
remnant rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico and inland 
sections of Mexico, from 24N southward from 88W westward, 
continuing to inland areas of Mexico.

Precipitation: isolated moderate to the NE of the line that runs 
from SE Louisiana to NW Cuba.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. The 
surface pressure gradient is comparatively flat.

High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will support gentle 
winds and slight seas in the entire area through early into the 
next week. Locally fresh winds are possible, each night through 
Sunday night, in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan 
Peninsula, due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 22N 
southward, moving westward 15 knots. 
An area of low pressure is expected to form, in association with 
this wave and the monsoon trough, in the next day or two, to the 
west of Central America. The atmospheric conditions are 
conducive for development. It is likely that a tropical 
depression or storm may form during this weekend or early next 
week, while the system moves west-northwestward, to the south of 
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Heavy rainfall is possible 
across Central America during this weekend.
Current precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 06N 
to 10N between 73W and 77W, covering parts of Colombia and its 
coastal plains and coastal waters, and sections of the 
Colombia/Venezuela border near NW Venezuela. Widely scattered to 
scattered strong in clusters covers the SW corner of the 
Caribbean Sea, and interior sections of Panama and southern 
Costa Rica, from 12N southward from 77W westward. Widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in central/southern 
sections of Haiti. Isolated moderate covers the rest of the 
Caribbean Sea from 70W westward.

Tropical Storm Josephine near 18.3N 57.4W 1005 mb at 
11 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt 
gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 19.2N 59.3W Sat morning, 
20.4N
61.6W Sat evening, 21.7N 63.9W Sun morning, the weaken to a 
tropical depression near 23.2N 65.8W Sun evening. Tropical
Depression Josephine will reach near  24.7N 67.2W Mon morning, 
and 26.4N 67.7W Mon evening. Josephine will become a remnant 
low, 
as it moves toward Bermuda late on Tuesday. Fresh trade winds 
will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea on Saturday. 
The comparatively fastest wind speeds are expected near the 
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from one upper level cyclonic 
circulation center that is about 180 nm to the south of Bermuda, 
to a second upper level cyclonic circulation center that is 
between Andros Island in the Bahamas and Cuba. Precipitation: 
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in SE Cuba on 
the Caribbean Sea side. Isolated moderate is from 28N northward 
between 57W and 66W.

A surface trough is along 32N44W 28N47W 24N50W. Precipitation: 
rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of the surface 
trough. Rainshowers also cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 
25N between 46W and 60W. Some of this precipitation is at the 
northern fringes of the precipitation that is accompanying 
Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean 
from 26N northward, away from the 32N44W-24N50W surface trough.

Tropical Storm Josephine near 18.3N 57.4W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Josephine will move to 19.2N 59.3W Sat morning, 20.4N 61.6W Sat
evening, 21.7N 63.9W Sun morning, then weaken to a tropical
depression near 23.2N 65.8W Sun evening. Tropical Depression
Josephine will reach 24.7N 67.2W Mon morning and 26.4N 67.7W Mon 
evening. Josephine will become a remnant low as it moves toward 
Bermuda late Tue. A persistent ridge, extending from the 
Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to 
moderate east to southeast winds. 

$$
mt