AXNT20 KNHC 260001
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Atlantic Gale warning...A strong cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast Tuesday evening. Low pressure will develop along
the front north-northeast of the Bahamas Wednesday night and
Thursday, followed by strong northerly winds to gale force. The
front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through Fri.
Please refer to the lastest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under
AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W south of the equator
at 25W. Scattered moderate rain showers are noted from 01N-06N
GULF OF MEXICO...
Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by high
pressure across the northern Gulf. This is producing gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the majority of the basin. No
significant showers are noted. Cloud cover is increasing over
the N Gulf ahead of a cold front poised to reach the coast of
Texas and Louisiana tonight. Scattered moderate showers are
along this front. The cold front will move into the northern
Gulf tonight. Fresh northerly winds will follow the front as it
sweeps southward, exiting the basin late Wed. Expect moderate to
fresh southerly return flow in the NW Gulf by late week as high
pressure builds over the Carolinas north of the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed south of Cuba
along 80W based on surface observations. Random isolated showers
are noted over the northern Caribbean. Scatterometer data shows
moderate to fresh trades over much of the eastern and central
Caribbean, with strong winds south of 13N near the coast of
High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds off Colombia into Wednesday. The winds will diminish
later in the week as the high shifts east ahead of a cold front.
The front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Wed, then
stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through
A cold front extends from 32N40W to 28N49W to 27N58W, and
continues as a weakening stationary front to 27N60W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front between 50W-60W. A surface
trough extends north of Haiti from 20N72W from 25N69W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 22N-27N between
65W-73W, including the waters east of the Bahamas. Scatterometer
data shows moderate to fresh NE winds within 150 nm north of the
front between 50W-70W. Over the eastern Atlantic, an occluded
1004 mb low is near 28N17W, with a cold front extending along
the coast of Africa. Scattered showers are within 120 nm NE of
the low center.
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