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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 161049
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 14N 
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are 
from 03N to 09N between 12W and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 13N 
southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 02N to 
10N between 32W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/53W, from 13N 
southward. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from
07N to 10N between 49W and 59W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 17N 
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover 
the area that is from 09N to 12N between 56W and 61W, and the 
area that is from 10N to 18N between 60W and 70W. The wave is 
moving through the area that is on the eastern side of an upper 
level trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 18N 
southward. No significant deep convective precipitation is 
apparent with this wave at this moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of 
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 08N20W and 06N26W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 06N38W and to 02N49W. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere, away from 
the tropical waves, from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, on the 
eastern side of a trough in Mexico that is between 98W and 102W.

A surface ridge extends from NE Florida, into the central Gulf 
of Mexico, and into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are 
along western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, from 24N southward 
between 88W and 92W. Other rainshowers are possible, to the 
south and east of the line that runs from 29N80W to 27N90W to 
23N98W. 

Moderate southeast to south winds will prevail across most of 
the basin through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 
28N54W, to 22N62W, across Puerto Rico, to 16N67W, and to NW 
Venezuela/northern Colombia. Isolated moderate to locally strong 
rainshowers cover the area that is from 09N to 12N between 56W 
and 61W, and the area that is from 10N to 18N between 60W and 
70W. A tropical wave is moving through the area that is on the 
eastern side of the upper level trough.

Lingering isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are 
cover the area that ranges from the Windward Passage, to the 
Caribbean Sea side of Cuba, to the Yucatan Channel and the NW 
Caribbean Sea.

High pressure building northeast of the area will allow the wind 
speeds to increase to near gale force off the coast of Colombia. 
The maximum sea heights will build to 12 to 14 feet. Fresh to 
strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at 
night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 
25N northward from 65W westward. A cold front is in the northern 
part of the discussion area between 55W and 65W. A surface 
trough is along 66W/68W from 24N to 30N. A second surface trough 
is along 27N/28N between 49W and 57W. Broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the 
NW of the line that runs from 32N60W to 20N70W at the northern 
coast of Hispaniola.

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 
28N54W, to 22N62W, across Puerto Rico, to 16N67W, and to NW 
Venezuela/northern Colombia. Isolated moderate to locally strong 
rainshowers cover the area that is from 09N to 12N between 56W 
and 61W, and the area that is from 10N to 18N between 60W and 
70W. A tropical wave is moving through the area that is on the 
eastern side of the upper level trough.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 38N33W. Upper 
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, to the north 
of the line that passes through 32N46W to 26N40W to 18N36W to 
25N15W. A frontal boundary is in the northern part of the 
discussion area, between 20W and 40W. Rainshowers are possible 
from 23N northward between 20W and 40W.

A surface trough will move slowly to the east of Florida on 
Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the 
region through Thursday, as high pressure builds across the 
central Atlantic Ocean. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt