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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211745
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 09-hour forecast for this afternoon at 21/2100 UTC has a 1011
mb low near 28.5N76W. Gale-force N winds are expected N of 30N
between 78W and 80W. Seas will be 12-14 ft. The low will deepen
significantly and gale-force winds will persist beyond 23/1200
UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: 
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the NWS National Hurricane Center
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
07N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 00N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is from
00N-07N between 03W-20W.  

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1041 mb high is centered over Missouri near 39N91W. 15-25 kt
northerly winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds
over the north central Gulf. Broken to overcast cold air
stratocumulus clouds are over the Gulf. The entire Gulf is
experiencing cold air advection. GFS thickness lines predicts
freezing conditions as far south as Orlando Florida for 22/0600
UTC tonight. 

High pressure across the central U.S. will continue to drive 
strong northerly winds across the E Gulf through tonight behind a 
NW Caribbean cold front. As the high pressure slides E Wed, winds 
across the eastern Gulf will weaken and strong southerly return 
flow will develop over the NW Gulf. A cold front moving into the 
NW Gulf Thu will shift fresh return flow to the N central then NE 
Gulf Thu night and Fri bring an end the strong winds. This front 
will shift slowly E across the Gulf and reach from the Florida Big
Bend region to Tampico Mexico by Fri evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N77W to 19N83W to 
central Honduras near 15N86W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the front. Broken cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the NW
Caribbean N of 20N. 20-25 northerly winds are NW of the front.
10-20 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean.
Scattered showers are over S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.
More scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and Puerto
Rico.  

Long-period north swell will continue to produce high seas and 
hazardous marine conditions across the Tropical North Atlantic and
along exposed Atlantic coasts of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto 
Rico through tonight, while gradually diminishing. A cold front 
that stretches from central Cuba to central Honduras today will 
continue to move SE and reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by 
this evening, then from central Hispaniola to NW Panama by Thu 
morning. Behind this front, strong north winds and high seas are 
expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N62W to
27N70W to central Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 29N50W. A stationary front id over the central Atlantic from
31N33W to 26N33W to 20N35W to 15N40W to 13N50W to 15N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-34N between 32W-35W.
Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the remainder of the  
front.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will stall through
this evening as low pressure forms along it near 28.5N76W. Gales 
will develop to the NW and W of the low this evening through Wed, 
while the low moves slowly NE toward Bermuda and intensifies 
through Fri. Northerly gales will shift NE with the low and exit 
the NE waters Fri. The associated cold front will move SE Wed 
through Thu and reach from the Mona Passage to 21N65W by Thu 
evening then stall across Puerto Rico Fri.

$$
Formosa