000
AXNT20 KNHC 110409
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico: 
Abundant tropical moisture surging northward across the western
Caribbean, combined with middle to upper-level diffluent flow
continues to support the development of showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the Caribbean Sea (west of 77W) and the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough 
seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this convective 
activity over these areas. This convection will amplify as it 
shifts across the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits 
through at least Thu. Mariners should exercise caution. Please 
refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast 
offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 23N, south of 
17N, and moving westward at around 10 kt. A few showers are noted
where the trough axis and monsoon trough interact. The northern
half of the wave is devoid of deep convection due to dry Saharan
air.

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 60W, south of 
12N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed 
near the trough axis.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean Sea along 72W, 
south of 13N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection
is evident in the Caribbean waters in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America. The trough axis
is along 84, south of 16N, and moving westward at 10 kt. A few 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident within 120 nm on
both sides of the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N25W. 
The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 04N40W and to 08N59W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 08N
and between 23W and 39W. Similar convection is seen south of 11N
and west of 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about 
heavy rainfall in the SE Gulf of Mexico. 

A surface trough is analyzed from 29N85W to northern Yucatan.
Divergence aloft and surging tropical moisture result in scattered
showers east of the aforementioned surface trough. While broad 
low pressures dominate the Gulf of Mexico, the pressure gradient 
between a 1019 mb high pressure north of the Leeward Islands and 
the surface trough sustain moderate to fresh southerly winds south
of 27N and east of 86W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass 
captured strong winds in association with the strongest 
convection. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to 
locally moderate and slight seas prevail. Light concentration of 
smoke continue over the western Gulf, including the Bay of 
Campeche, due to ongoing agricultural fires, creating hazy 
conditions.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle
to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S
to SW winds will develop tonight over the SE basin being enhanced
by an amplifying area of convection moving to the region from the
NW Caribbean. These enhanced winds will continue through Wed to
the SE of a weak surface trough. By Fri night, moderate to fresh 
S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin,
increasing to strong speeds Sat into Sat night. Otherwise, hazy 
conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and 
Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, 
reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW 
Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about 
heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. 

A 1030 mb high pressure system just north of the Azores extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient
between the this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in fresh to strong E-SE winds over much of the basin. The
strongest winds are occurring in the south-central Caribbean as 
depicted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these 
waters are 5-8 ft. However, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are found in the SW Caribbean and Windward Passage.

Outside of the NW Caribbean, isolated thunderstorms are noted off
NW Colombia and scattered showers off Panama. In the remainder of
the basin, a dry airmass continues to suppress the development of
deep convection.

For the forecast, a scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
expected across the NW Caribbean through Tue. Moderate to fresh 
trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean 
through the forecast period, pulsing to locally strong winds at 
night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast for 
the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the waters off NE
Florida. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and a
stationary front off the SE United States support moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds north of 26N and west of 65W. Seas
in these waters are 3-5 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
also indicated moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas
of 3-5 ft south of 24N and west of 65W. 

Farther east, a 1018 mb low pressure is located near 28N56W along a
surface trough that extends from 25N55W to 30N60W. Moderate to 
occasionally fresh SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found on the 
north side of the trough. A dissipating stationary front extends 
from 31N27W to 24N38W and 22N53W. A surface showers are seen near 
this boundary. The remainder of the basin is under the influence 
of a 1030 mb high pressure system just north of the Azores. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring 
south of 20N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are 
evident in the eastern Atlantic, from 15N to 27N and east of 30W. 
Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface high pressure and associated
ridging will prevail across the region through Thu, then 
gradually shift northward through the end of the week. Moderate to
fresh S to SW winds over the NE Florida offshore waters will 
continue through Tue night, briefly reaching strong speeds N of 
29N between 74W and 80W tonight and Tue evening. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate winds are expected on either side of the ridge, with 
light to gentle winds along the ridge axis.

$$
Delgado