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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 181808

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
108 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward 
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along 
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, 
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 08N13W and 
extends to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the 
coast of South America near 01S44W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is south of the monsoon trough from 02N-06N 
between 08W- 18W. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection 
is observed from 00N-02N between 22W-25W and near the coast of 
Brazil from 03S-00N between 37W-44W. 


The tail end of a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle 
near 30N85W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N94W to the Bay of 
Campeche near 19N94W. Low stratus and fog are W of front. 20-25 
kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder of the basin 
has 10-20 kt southeast to south flow as a high pressure over the 
western Atlantic extends over the E Gulf waters.

A cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle to the central 
Bay of Campeche will reach from Tarpon Springs, Florida to the 
central gulf to the Bay of Campeche late today as it becomes 
stationary. The front will then lift N toward the NW Gulf states 
through Tue evening before moving off the Texas coast again early 
Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf through Fri. Expect fresh to 
strong NE-E winds N of 22N and W of the front through Tue morning.
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected W of the cold front on 


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more 
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central 
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the basin. 
Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico moving W with the tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-
to-upper levels continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central 
Caribbean through late Fri, reaching minimal gale force along the 
coast of Colombia at night each night except Wed night. Strong 
winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters through 
late today and westward past Jamaica by Tue night as strong high 
pres builds N of the area. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also 
expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf 
of Honduras, through Fri. NE to E swell will build over Atlantic 
waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week 
continuing through the weekend.


A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N24W. This 
pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western 
Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern

A ridge extending westward over the forecast area is maintaining 
gentle to moderate wind flow across the region, increasing to 
moderate to fresh offshore of northern Florida. A cold front will 
move off the NE Florida coast this evening, then stall over the 
waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the front will lift N by 
Tue night, while the eastern part is forecast to move S-SE until 
dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. A ridge will build again by
mid week and will prevail through Fri.

For additional information please visit