AXNT20 KNHC 171041
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Caribbean Gale Warning...
High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with
winds briefly increasing to gale-force over the NW coast of Colombia
Wed night due to low pressure deepening over northern Colombia.
Seas will build to 8-14 ft as a result of these winds. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa, with axis along 22W
from 20N southward, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave from 06N-09N
A tropical wave is along 30W from 30N-20N. This is a mid latitude
trough. At this time, scattered showers are in the along the wave
A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from
22N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail
along the wave axis.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 62W
from 24N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted moving across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 84W from
21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 13N-19N between 81W-86W including the coast of Nicaragua
The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 17N16W to
05N35W. The ITCZ extends from 05N35W to 01N47W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
showers are noted within 80 nm north and south of the monsoon
trough between 27W-34W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered south of Apalachee Bay. With this, gentle anticyclonic
winds prevail across the Gulf waters. A trough is present near
22N89W to 17N92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are over the Bay of Campeche south of 22N associated to the trough.
This activity will continue overnight as the usual thermal trough
moves west from the peninsula into the southwest Gulf.
A high pres ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast through
Sun night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail
across the basin, except winds will be fresh to strong to the NW
of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and overnight hours.
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the wave
traversing the central Caribbean.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave, only
scattered showers are noted across the remainder of the basin
mainly from the Windward passage and south of Cuba. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin
except between 75-82W, where moderate to fresh winds prevail.
High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will
briefly increase to gale force along the Coast of Colombia this
evening into early Thu. Locally strong trade winds will affect the
Gulf of Honduras each night. A tropical wave along 84W will exit
the NW Caribbean by early Thu. The next tropical wave is entering
the eastern Caribbean and will reach the central Caribbean Thu
night, then reach the western Caribbean Sat night.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.
A surface trough extends from 29N66W to 28N66W. Scattered showers
are noted west of the trough from 27N-29N between 67W-70W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 33N38W.
A high pres ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate
E to SE winds through Sun night. The high will be strong enough to
generate fresh to strong E winds between the southeastern Bahamas
and Hispaniola, primarily during the evening hours.
For additional information please visit