AXNT20 KNHC 181808
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
108 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Caribbean Gale Warning...
High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 08N13W and
extends to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of South America near 01S44W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is south of the monsoon trough from 02N-06N
between 08W- 18W. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection
is observed from 00N-02N between 22W-25W and near the coast of
Brazil from 03S-00N between 37W-44W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
The tail end of a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 30N85W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N94W to the Bay of
Campeche near 19N94W. Low stratus and fog are W of front. 20-25
kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder of the basin
has 10-20 kt southeast to south flow as a high pressure over the
western Atlantic extends over the E Gulf waters.
A cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle to the central
Bay of Campeche will reach from Tarpon Springs, Florida to the
central gulf to the Bay of Campeche late today as it becomes
stationary. The front will then lift N toward the NW Gulf states
through Tue evening before moving off the Texas coast again early
Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf through Fri. Expect fresh to
strong NE-E winds N of 22N and W of the front through Tue morning.
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected W of the cold front on
Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.
Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the basin.
Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico moving W with the tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-
to-upper levels continues to dominate the region.
Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central
Caribbean through late Fri, reaching minimal gale force along the
coast of Colombia at night each night except Wed night. Strong
winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters through
late today and westward past Jamaica by Tue night as strong high
pres builds N of the area. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also
expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf
of Honduras, through Fri. NE to E swell will build over Atlantic
waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week
continuing through the weekend.
A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N24W. This
pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western
Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern
A ridge extending westward over the forecast area is maintaining
gentle to moderate wind flow across the region, increasing to
moderate to fresh offshore of northern Florida. A cold front will
move off the NE Florida coast this evening, then stall over the
waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the front will lift N by
Tue night, while the eastern part is forecast to move S-SE until
dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. A ridge will build again by
mid week and will prevail through Fri.
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