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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230001
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Chantal centered near 38.4N 42.9W at 22/1800 
UTC or 684 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 14 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is E of the center from 37N-40N between 40W-42W. See 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-15N 
between 16W-24W.

A 1011 mb low is embedded on the monsoon trough near 10N37W. 
Scattered showers are seen from 10N-11N between 38W-40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 19N46W to 05N44W 
moving W at 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show a moisture 
maximum associated with the wave. Isolated showers are along and 
within 200 nm E of the wave axis near the monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W from 19N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers cover the NE Caribbean 
north of 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 16N16W to a 1011 mb 
low near 10N37W to 10N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to the 
coast of Venezuela near 07N57W. Aside from the convection 
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate 
convection is along the coast of W Africa near the coast of 
Sierra Leone and Guinea. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 31N83W. A surface 
trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 25N93W to 19N94W.
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
across much of the central and western Gulf, from 21N-29N between
86W-96W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is 
centered over the SW Gulf near 21N94W and upper high is centered 
over the N Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W. Upper level diffluence 
is over the N Gulf enhancing convection in the area west of 86W. 
Scattered moderate convection is also noted across the northern 
Gulf from the Louisiana coast to the Florida Panhandle and across
the peninsula. ASCAT indicated light and gentle winds prevail 
across the basin with brief gusty winds near tstorms east of the
trough axis from 20N-26N between 92W-94W. 

A trough near 94W will move west of the of area tonight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will prevail along and near this trough.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain elsewhere across the area 
maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the region. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the upper levels, easterly flow prevails with some subsidence
across the eastern and central Caribbean as upper level ridge 
centered near 21N64W remains in control. At the surface, latest 
GOES 16 SAL imagery indicates the presence of SAL is still across 
much of the south Caribbean from the ABC Islands to the Yucatan 
Channel. ASCAT do show moderate to fresh easterly trades across 
the eastern and central Caribbean and a light E/SE flow in the NW 
Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the Bahamas across Cuba 
to 19N77W. Abundant moisture in the vicinity continues to enhance 
showers and tstorms over Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers and 
tstorms are noted in Hispaniola associated to the tropical wave 
along 68W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean from 09N-12N between 74W-84W. This convection is mostly
due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. 

Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will develop over the 
Gulf of Honduras tonight into early Fri before diminishing. Fresh 
to strong northeast to east winds will continue over the south-
central Caribbean through Tue night, expanding in coverage later 
this weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An trough of low pressure over the northwest Bahamas is located 
28N78W and beyond Central Cuba to 19N77W. Scattered moderate 
convection is 22N-29N between 69W-79W. Scattered moderate 
convection with this trough has become a little better organized 
since yesterday. Slow development is possible during the next 
several days while it moves northwestward towards the FL 
peninsula, then turns northeast off the southeast coast of the 
United States. Locally heavy rains are possible over portion of S 
FL peninsula during the next day or two. Of note in the upper 
levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic 
near 32N67W. Upper level diffluence is producing scattered 
moderate convection from 27N-32N between 58W-63W. Further east, a 
1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N53W and remains in 
control across the basin. 

A surface trough near 78W will continue to support scattered 
showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 70W at least 
through Sat. The surface trough will move westward, reaching 
Florida on Fri.

$$
MMTorres