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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 201759

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.


A Central American Gyre (CAG) is developing across Central 
America and the adjacent southwest Caribbean today. The monsoon 
trough has begun to shift northward, increasing SW winds and 
advecting tropical moisture over Central America. Heavy to 
extreme rainfall is possible over portions of Guatemala, El 
Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama. There is 
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially across 
mountainous terrain. This event is expected to last through 
early next week. Please refer to products issued by your local 
weather service for more information.


A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 50W, from 01N 
to 14N moving west around 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 00N-07N between 42W-53W. 

A tropical wave is in the far western Caribbean with axis south 
of 19N along 88W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted south of 20N and west of 


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N15W to 
09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 01N49W. Numerous 
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 03N-08W 
east of 26W. The eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough extends 
across Central America, reaching the coast near 11N84W near the 
border of Costa Rica and Honduras, and extending to 10N75W over 
Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted south of 20N west of 81W.


The gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over NE 
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE flow across the 
majority of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3-
6 ft in the western Gulf. Divergent upper-level flow is 
supporting scattered moderate convection north of 26N and east 
of 86W.

For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western 
Atlantic through Sun as low pressure develops over the Bay of 
Campeche. This will allow for mostly fresh southeast winds over 
the western Gulf to expand eastward tonight into Sat. Fresh to 
strong southeast winds from the northwestern Caribbean Sea will 
surge into the central Gulf waters and Yucatan Channel from from 
Sat through Sun, diminishing to fresh speeds Sun night. 
Elsewhere, Winds and seas will then diminish slightly across 
most of the basin Sun into Mon as the pressure gradient relaxes, 
leaving only pulses of fresh to occasionally strong winds at 
night off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh 
return flow is expected over the western Gulf Mon night through 
Tue night.


Please see the Special Features section for information on a
potential heavy rainfall event.

The Bermuda High interacting with lower pressure over Central 
America associated with the developing Central American Gyre is 
forcing fresh to strong NE trades over the central and W 
Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades over the E Caribbean. 
Seas are 7-9 ft over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the W 
Caribbean, and 3-6 ft over the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted south of 20N west of 81W 
in association with a tropical wave and the developing Central 
American Gyre.

For the forecast, winds and seas across the basin will increase 
tonight into the weekend as the western Atlantic ridge 
strengthens and broad low pressure over Central America 
gradually shifts west to northwestward. The strongest winds and 
highest seas are expected to be over parts of the northwestern 
and south-central Caribbean during this period. Looking ahead, 
winds and seas will start to diminish across the basin early 
next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. 


Ridging associated with the Bermuda and Azores Highs stretches 
across the basin near 30N. Winds northwest of a line from 30N30W 
to 20N70W are gentle or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. Southeast of 
the line, the NE to E trades are moderate to fresh and with seas 
6-9 ft. A dissipating cold front extends from 30N23W 
southwestward to 27N30W with showers occurring within 60 NM of 
the front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring between 
23N-27N west of 75W, forced by upper-level divergent flow. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along 28N will 
lift north to 30N through tonight and strengthen. This pattern 
will support mainly gentle to moderate breezes across the region 
through early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds 
north of Hispaniola starting tonight.