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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 182336
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from
05N26W to 04N37W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is from 02N to 07N between 20W and 29W and offshore
Liberia, Africa. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
01N to 10N W of 44W.  

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stalled out front extends from southeastern Louisiana to 
the extreme NE coast of Mexico. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms, being aided by a mid-level trough, are north of 
27N between 85W and 91W ahead of the front and will continue to 
affect the remainder NE Gulf through Sun. Aside from the shower
activity, moderate to fresh E and SW winds are affecting the
north-central Gulf offshore waters N of 27N and the NE basin N of
28N. In the northern Yucatan Peninula offshore waters, fresh to
strong E to SE winds are ongoing along with seas to 8 ft while
moderate SE winds are across the Yucatan Channel. Off the W
Yucatan coast, winds are moderate from the N-NE. Light to gentle
variable winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. Otherwise, areas 
of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue 
across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, the stalled front will begin to shift eastward 
tonight as a weak cold front before stalling again on Sun and 
weaken gradually through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return 
flow will dominate the basin through early Sun, pulsing to locally
strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds 
will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure 
gradient relaxes. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will 
develop again across the W Gulf Tue through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic ridge extends westward along 17N-29N into the Bahamas.
The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure over SE Mexico is supporting fresh to near gale-force SE
winds across the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to strong E winds in
the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are
elsewhere across the basin, except for fresh winds in the SE
Caribbean. Otherwise, smoke due to agricultural fires in Central
America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and
over the Gulf of Honduras. 

For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will 
persist through Sun morning, reaching near gale-force tonight. 
Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela
and offshore Colombia through Mon night. High pressure from the 
eastern Atlantic will build some westward Wed and early Wed night 
leading to increasing trade winds over most of the central and 
eastern Caribbean as a weak trough materializes over the western 
Atlantic. A mid to upper-level trough may bring increasing 
tropical moisture to the central and eastern Caribbean region 
around mid-week.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal trough extends from 31N57W southwestward to 28N61W
and to 27N68W. This trough and two other surface trough over the
central subtropical Atlantic intersects a broad ridge that covers
the subtropical waters E of 80W, except for the NE Florida
offshore waters where middle to upper level diffluent flow support
heavy showers and tstms. These showers extends to 76W and reach
the northern Bahamas. The ridge supports mainly light to gentle
variable winds over the central and western subtropical Atlantic,
except for moderate trades off the northern Greater Antilles. A
tighter pressure gradient over the E Atlantic, support moderate NE
to E winds N of 20N and E of 40W. In the tropics, the trades are
moderate, except locally fresh E of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are
mainly moderate basin-wide. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough will shift eastward through
late Sun as it weakens further. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
and moderate seas are expected across most of the area through Sun
night as high pressure extends E to W roughly along 17N-29N. A 
new front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia 
and NE Florida early Mon, and move southeastward and weaken 
through late Tue. A trough may extend from near 30N70W to the 
northern Bahamas early on Wed and slowly shift eastward through 
Thu night as possible weak low pressure forms along it.

$$
Ramos