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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 222354

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.


The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated to
this wave is noted from 04N to 10N between 15W and 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W from 03N to 20W. No
significant convection is noted with this wave. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W from 02N to 18N, moving W
at 20 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection was noted from
05N to 10N between 50W and 54W.  

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W from the coast of
Venezuela to the Mona passage, moving W at 10-15 knots. This wave
is helping for active convection over the northeast Caribbean from
15N to 20N between 60W and 65W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W extending from the eastern
north Pacific across Panama to westerm Cuba. The wave is helping
for enhanced convection over Panama, and portions of Central


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09.5N13.5W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 
03.5N41W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58.5W. Outside of the 
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 40W and 50W. Isolated
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 55W and 61W.



A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters, producing gentle to 
moderate winds with seas of 3-5 ft over the western Gulf, and 
seas of 3 ft or less across the eastern Gulf. Weak ridging will 
persist from the southeast Gulf to the coast of Texas through 
early next week. SE return flow will increase slightly over the 
western Gulf between the ridge and weak low pressure over northern
Mexico starting Sat night.

A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each 
afternoon, then move westward across the SW Gulf during the 
overnight hours, accompanied by fresh to occasionally strong east
to southeast winds.


A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Another 
tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Please, see Tropical
Waves section for more details. Expect increasing showers and 
isolated thunderstorms in association with the passage of these 
tropical waves.

Trade winds over the south central Caribbean will strengthen and 
expand in areal coverage across the basin through early next week 
as high pressure builds across the central Atlantic. Winds could 
reach near gale force along the coast of Colombia by Sat night. 


An upper-level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation centered
near 22N69W across Hispaniola and the waters between eastern Cuba
and Jamaica. The low continues to generates scattered showers and
tstms mainly over the waters from 23N to 26N between 68W and 72W.

High pressure of 1029 mb centered near 32N40W extends a ridge 
westward across the forecast area. Fresh trades are noted along 
the southern periphery of the ridge. This high pressure will 
slowly shift westward through Sat night, then remain nearly 
stationary near 30N55W through Tue night. The tightening pressure 
gradient that results over the central Atlantic will support fresh
to strong trade winds and seas of 8-9 ft E of the Lesser Antilles
to about 45W by early Sat morning. These marine conditions will 
persist on Sun with seas building up to 10 ft. Fresh to strong 
winds are also expected off Hispaniola at night.

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