AXNT20 KNHC 140550
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A low pressure system centered near 37N50W is producing a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the
center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some
development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over
colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for
this low to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 08N to 20N.
Isolated moderate rain showers are in the monsoon trough area,
from 07N to 10N between 26W and 34W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 08N to 21N,
moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate rain showers are in the
monsoon trough area, from 07N to 09N between 43W and 50W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 10N to 23N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Minimal precipitation is evident near
the wave axis.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 10N to 22N. The
wave is enhancing scattered moderate to strong rain showers that
are associated with the monsoon trough south of 11N.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W
to 09N20W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W to 08N49W to
the coast of South America near 08N60W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong rain showers are from 05N to 10N between 33W and
52W, and from 09N to 11N between 58W and 63W, near Venezuela and
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level cyclonic circulation over southern Mexico, and
upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south
of 24N and 90W westward. A 1017 mb high is centered near New
Orleans. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest
of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain showers are from 26N
to 29N between Florida and 91W.
A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the
Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each
night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds
will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the
middle of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface
ridge will support light to moderate E to SE winds across the
remainder of the basin through Friday night.
An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the
Caribbean Sea from north of 14N and west of the Windward Passage
including the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rain showers cover the area north of
15N between 75W and 90W.
The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong rain showers are within 45 nm on either
side of the line that runs from 09N80W at the coast of Panama,
to 12N85W in south central Nicaragua.
Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through today.
Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,
have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the
week as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow from an upper level trough covers
the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward and west
of 70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are in
the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow associated with a trough covers
the Atlantic from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rain showers cover the Atlantic Ocean
north of 28N between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a
trailing surface trough are north of the area along 50W.
A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center near
33N34W to 28N50W to a 1022 mb high pressure center near 30N66W.
The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several
days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong
winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and approaches to
the Windward Passage at night. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
wind flow will continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly
wind flow will prevail S of 23N.
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