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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 201806

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic... 

ASCAT data indicates gale force winds occurring ahead and behind 
the strong cold front that is currently moving eastward across 
Florida. Gale force winds are forecast to continue today with seas
building over 20 feet. For additional information on this warning,
please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central 
Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near
gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional 
information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the


The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W 
and extends to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 
00S29W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is 80 to 180 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 08W-12W. Scattered showers are within 200 nm on 
either side of the ITCZ W of 20W. 


A strong cold front extends from Marco Island Florida to the W 
coast of Cuba and across the Yucatan Channel. The front will 
continue to move SE today and exit the basin this afternoon and 
enter the western Caribbean today. Radar imagery shows scattered 
moderate convection over South Florida and into the Straits of 
Florida, moving southeast ahead of the front. No significant 
convection is noted over the Gulf as a surge of drier air enters 
the basin. 

As the strong cold front exits the basin today, strong winds and 
high seas across most of the Gulf will slowly subside through 
tonight. Surface ridging southward over the Gulf will shift E and 
allow strong SE to S return flow to develop in the western Gulf of
Mexico by Tue morning. The strong return flow will expand to the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue night. Another strong cold front could 
enter the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed morning and introduce another 
round of gales to the Mexican coast. 


A strong cold front enters the western Caribbean from the western
Cuba near 21N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87W. A surface 
trough extends from 21N84W to 15N88W ahead of the strong cold 
front. Radar imagery shows no significant convection with the 
tail end of the front south from western Cuba into the Yucatan. 
Typical patches of low clouds and isolated showers exist in a few 
spots. Scattered showers are present near western Cuba and near 
Isla de la Juventud associated to the proximity of the front. The
trade winds are strongest over the central Caribbean. Quiet
weather prevails across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. 

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the S
central Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near 
gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia each night 
through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will 
prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front is moving SE into the NW 
Caribbean this morning, and will extend from central Cuba to the 
Gulf of Honduras tonight. The front will weaken but still extend 
from SE Cuba to the NW and N central coast of Honduras on Mon 
night, and then start to weaken and drift N from Cuba westward 
from Tue morning until Tue night. Strong high pres building over 
the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the 
basin Tue through Thu resulting in strong winds across almost all
of the eastern and central Caribbean. 


A strong cold front in the western Atlantic enters our area near 
31N79W and extends south into NE Florida coast. Latest scatterometer
data indicates Gale force winds ahead and behind the strong cold 
front north of 28N W of 73W. Pre-frontal scattered moderate 
convection extends from NW Cuba near 23N77W along the Straits of 
Florida and into the western Atlantic ahead of the front. Further 
east, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 29N60W to
23N59W. No significant convection is noted near the trough. A 
second surface trough extends from 30N46W to 21N52W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 21N-34N between 43W- 50W. A 1035 mb 
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N28W. Refer to the 
section above for more details on the gale.

A strong cold front moving off the NE Florida coast will then 
reach from 31N72W to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W tonight, from 
30N65W to 26N70W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday 
morning, from 27N65W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday 
night. The front will begin weakening and become stationary on 
Tuesday afternoon from 23N65W to near the Windward Passage. 
Minimal gale force winds will prevail on either side of the front 
N of 28N and W of 65W from this morning through Monday morning. 
Peak seas will build to near 20 feet in NW swell behind the front 
on Tues. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on 
Tue as strong high pressure builds to the N of the front. These 
winds will persist through Wed night as the strong high slowly 
shifts E over the western Atlc near 35N. The next cold front 
should push E from Florida on Thu. 

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