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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231714
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Broad cyclonic wind flow spans the area from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the surface
into the upper levels of the atmosphere. A surface trough is in 
the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the NE corner of the 
Yucatan Peninsula to NW Honduras. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 17N to 22N between 84W and
88W, in the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are 13N to 16N between 82W and 84W,
in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Nicaragua and
Honduras. other rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from Jamaica
westward in the Caribbean Sea, and from 20N northward from 70W
westward in the Atlantic Ocean. Little development into a tropical
cyclone is expected during the next couple of days, due to strong
upper level winds and proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development into a tropical cyclone, after the next 48 hours or 
so. It is possible that a subtropical depression or a tropical 
depression may form this weekend in the eastern or central Gulf of
Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the western 
sections of Cuba and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, 
and in much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast during the 
weekend. Please stay tuned to forecasts that are issued by your 
local weather office for more details. The chance for formation 
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is low.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 41W/43W, from 10N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb 
trough. isolated moderate rainshowers are
from the Equator to 06N between 40W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 04N20W,
to the Equator along 29W, to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N
southward from 60W eastward. 

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

One upper level trough is in place already in the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. That feature is the topic of discussion for
the SPECIAL FEATURES section. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 27N96W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers from 25N to 30N between 90W and 97W. the precipitation
is reaching the upper Texas Gulf coast. 

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 32N48W high
pressure center into the NE Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast
to shift eastward through early Thursday. Broad surface low
pressure, that is just to the north of Belize, is expected to 
develop more and more, off the northern coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula on Friday morning. The low pressure center will move 
northward, slowly, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during this 
weekend. Expect near gale-force winds and associated seas to the 
east of the low pressure center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 23N55W 
cyclonic circulation center, through 17N58W, to the coast of 
Venezuela near 11N63W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is 
apparent in water vapor imagery from 11N to 20N between 52W and 
70W, in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level 
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. 
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

A surface ridge extends into the northern Caribbean Sea, from a 
32N48W Atlantic Ocean 1028 mb high pressure center. Expect fresh 
to strong trade winds in the central and eastern sections through 
Thursday morning, with the strongest winds being along the coast 
of Colombia. Broad surface low pressure, that is just north of 
Belize, will drift northward into the Gulf of Mexico through 
Friday morning. Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas are 
forecast for the NW Caribbean Sea, from Thursday night through 
Saturday morning, as the area of low pressure develops more and 
more in the Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from a 23N55W cyclonic circulation
center, through 17N58W, to the coast of Venezuela near 11N63W. 
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 11N to 20N between 52W and 70W, in the Caribbean Sea
and in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 18N to 30N between 46W and 57W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center, that
is near 32N48W, beyond Florida. Expect moderate to fresh trade 
winds south of 27N this week, with winds pulsing to strong N of 
Hispaniola at night on Wednesday and on Thursday. The winds will 
diminish slightly on Friday, as the ridge shifts eastward. A
developing area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico for this 
weekend will increase SE winds west of 77W from Friday through
Sunday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT