AXNT20 KNHC 190520
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13N43W to 05N44W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area
that runs from 04N to 12N between 40W and 50W. A surface trough
is along 34W/35W from 08N to 15N. The southernmost part of the
43W/44W tropical wave moved comparatively faster than the
northernmost part of the tropical wave. This surface trough
represents that part of the wave that has remained as the wave
became stretched out on a NE-to-SW line. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 10N to 15N between 30W and 40W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from Hispaniola
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 70W and 80W,
with an upper level trough.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave reached 90W/91W from the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico southward. The wave has been absorbed into the
Central American Gyre since the 19/0000 UTC map analysis. The
western end of an upper level trough is present in a central
Guatemala upper level cyclonic circulation center. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in Guatemala
from 17N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere in Central America from Nicaragua
The monsoon trough remains inland without reaching the coastal
sections of Guinea. The ITCZ passes through the coastal sections
of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N20W, to 04N29W, and to 04N34W.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N to 09N
between 14W and 19W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 02N to 06N between 25W and 32W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere within 150 nm to 210 nm on
either side of the line that runs from 07N12W to 05N22W to 02N34W.
The ITCZ also is along 11N45W 09N50W 09N59W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 04N to 13N between 48W and
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front reaches 29N80W in the Atlantic Ocean. The front is
stationary from 29N80W, across Florida to 28N90W in the Gulf of
Mexico, to 28N96W, and then curving to the coast of Mexico in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico at the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 18N94W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, from 16N in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico
to 20N between 93W and 96W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 90W westward in the Gulf of Mexico.
The current stationary front will dissipate slowly, north of 27N,
through Friday night. The front will persist west of 94W through
early Sunday. The winds and sea heights will diminish in the
western Gulf of Mexico as the front weakens. A cold front will
enter the Gulf waters on Saturday, extend from central Florida to
southern Texas on Sunday, stall and weaken Sunday night and Monday,
and then lift northward as a warm front early next week.
An upper level trough passes through 20N58W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across the NE part of the Caribbean Sea, to Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage, to a broad upper level cyclonic circulation
center that is near the Cayman Islands, to central Guatemala.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward from 70W eastward. An upper level trough also
extends from the Windward Passage toward NW Venezuela that is
along 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is
between 70W and 80W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
in the coastal areas of the ABC Islands, Venezuela, and Colombia
from 13N southward from 72W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 19/0000 UTC, according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC, are 1.66 in Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the region
through Tuesday. The highest wind speeds are expected near the
Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and south of E Cuba.
A cold front passes through 32N58W to 29N70W and to 29N80W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm
to the NW of the line that passes through 32N55W to 30N58W to
28N63W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 27N northward from 63W westward.
An upper level trough is along 32N48W 25N54W 20N58W, beyond the
NE part of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 49W/50W
from 18N to 30N. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that
is from 20N to 32N between 39W and 60W, and from 20N to 25N
between 60W and the Bahamas. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and rainshowers also are within 210 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 23N47W to 18N54W to 14N60W.
The eastern part of the current cold front will extend from
30N65W to 29N81W tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds, and building
seas, are expected to the north of the front through Friday.
A second cold front will move off northern Florida on Saturday
night, with fresh to strong NE winds and building seas, behind
the front through Monday.
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