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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 211754

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1719 UTC.


A tightening pressure gradient will bring NE gale force winds
from 22/00Z to 22/12Z along the N Colombia coast from 11N- 12N 
between 74W- 76W. Seas are expected to be between 9-14 ft. Winds
will stay below gale force after 22/12Z.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W S of 14N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. At this time, no significant convection is noted near
this feature. Scattered showers are from 05N- 08N between 27W-

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W S of 17N, moving W 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are seen near this wave from
04N-07N between 51W-53W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along an axis of 63W near 
the Lesser Antilles S of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W S of 20N, moving W
at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
11N15W to 08N22W to 06N34W. The ITCZ begins from 06N34W to 
07N50W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 07N52W to the
coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. The most significant convection is
seen along the ITCZ with scattered moderate convection seen off
the coast of Venezuela from 08N-11N between 57W-61W. 


An upper level trough is stretching across the western Atlantic 
and into the western Gulf which is giving way to convection across
the northern half of the basin. This activity is seen from 24N-
30N between 82W- 95W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the 
Gulf and Bay of Campeche from 19N-25N between 91W-96W. A surface 
trough is also seen from 30N84W to 29N85W, off the Florida 
Panhandle coast, which is sparking thunderstorms. Surface ridging 
covers most of the area anchored by a 1018 mb high near 30N87W. 
Light to gentle S-SE winds are seen across the basin with 2-3 ft 

A ridge along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will 
retreat east by Tuesday night and allow a cold front to move 
over the northern Gulf. The front will then stall and weaken 
Wednesday and Thursday. Gentle to moderate winds will continue 
across most of the basin, except for fresh to strong winds pulsing
to the W of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and Monday night. 


An inverted mid to upper level trough is seen near the arc of the
Antilles. However, most of the upper level divergence from this  
is giving way to convection in the Atlantic. However, there are 
some isolated thunderstorms beginning to fire along and off the 
west coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are also moving 
throughout the Lesser Antilles and the arc of the Antilles. 

Isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean and the Gulf 
of Honduras, especially off the coast of Belize and the Yucatan. 
This activity is noted from 16N- 18N between 81W-88W. Scattered 
moderate convection enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough is
seen along the coast of Panama and Costa Rica, south of 11N and 
east of 81W. Fresh to strong trades are seen north of Colombia 
with light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin. Seas are
generally 2 to 4 ft.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade 
winds over the central Caribbean Sea through next week. Winds 
along the coast of Colombia will reach gale force tonight. Fresh 
easterly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and 
Monday night.


The upper level trough seen stretching across the Gulf is 
igniting thunderstorms mostly between the Bahamas and S Florida 
coast from 24N-28N between 78W-80W. A surface trough is noted 
across the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands from 
26N71W to 20N73W. This, along with the upper level inverted 
trough, is sparking scattered moderate convection from 21N-26N 
between 67W- 73W. 

Farther east, 4 surface troughs are analyzed with two associated 
with some convection. The first is noted from 31N46W to 28N56W 
with isolated thunderstorms within 100 nm NW of the trough. The 
second is noted from 25N55W to 21N60W with isolated showers within
100 nm west of the feature. The other two troughs are noted from 
27N47W to 23N49W and from 24N41W to 19N41W with no significant 
convection associated with either features. Surface ridging covers
the rest of the domain anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N65W. 

The trough near the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos will move WNW to
reach the waters between the Bahamas and Florida late Monday. The 
ridge aligned along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate east 
to southeast winds across the region through Tuesday night. It 
will start retreating eastward on Tuesday night, enabling a trough
to move over the NW waters from Florida Wednesday morning. Fresh 
to occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each 
night through the middle of next week. 

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