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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 212327

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure building 
southward over the western Atlantic and lower pressures inland 
over Colombia will enable winds to pulse to gale force at night, 
over the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is forecast in 36 hours to enter the central 
Atlantic from 31N45W to 30N50W to 29N65W. A Gale Warning is in 
effect for the area N of 30N between 37W-40W, with seas 16 to 20 
ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website for further details.


The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near 
06N10W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast
of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-35W. 


A warm front extends from the coast of Louisiana near 30N92W to a
1010 mb surface low centered near 27N96W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly
winds are prevailing across most of the basin while light to
gentle northerly winds prevail northwest of the low/front. 

The front will continue lifting north tonight. Another cold front
will move off the Texas coast late Saturday, reach from the 
Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by Sunday evening and from near 
southwest Florida to near 25N89W to the SW Gulf Monday.


Fair weather prevails across the basin supported by dry air in 
the mid-and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images do 
show patches of low clouds and perhaps embedded isolated showers 
moving within the trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are
over the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds cover 
the remainder of the basin. 

High pressure northeast of the region will maintain fresh to 
strong trade winds mainly within the central Caribbean, and north
of Honduras through the next several days. Gale-force winds will 
pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia. Long period north to 
northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters to the 
east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late today before 
dissipating Sun through Monday night.


Surface ridging extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a 
1026 mb high near 30N62W. To the east, a cold front enters the 
discussion area near 31N26W and extends through 20N56W, then
becomes west to 22N65W. No significant convection is related to 
this front at this time. Scatterometer data show a fairly large 
region of fresh winds north of the front to 30N, then stronger 
winds north of the area. Weather conditions are quiet over the 
eastern and tropical Atlantic, supported by surface high  
centered north of the region, as well as dry air aloft. 

The high pressure over the west Atlantic will slide eastward and 
weaken through Saturday in response to an approaching cold front.
The front will move across the northwest part of the area Sunday 
night, then reach from near 31N69W to 27N76W and to near West Palm
Beach Monday afternoon and become stationary from near 25N65W to 
South Florida by Tuesday.

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