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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 181808 AAA

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
108 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Updated to include large swell near the Canary Islands

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC. 


The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 09N13W to 07N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N17W to 05N22W to 05N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate to 
locally strong convection is within 180 nm south and 270 nm north
of the boundaries between the west coast of Africa and 32W. 
Between 32W-52W, scattered moderate to locally strong convection 
extends from near the ITCZ to 180 nm north of the ITCZ. Broken 
cloud cover and scattered showers cover the area from 10N-17N 
between 50W-59W.


Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. 
A surface trough is over the SW the Gulf of Mexico parallel to 
the coast of Mexico from 25N97W to 22N97W to 18N95W. Scattered 
rainshowers are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico, 
mainly west of 93W. This includes areas within 90 nm of the 
coast of Texas between Freeport and Brownsville.

A 1015 mb surface low is centered near 23N83W. A surface trough
passes from 29N86W to 26N84W to the low and into the NW Caribbean
near 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the
Florida Straits and western Florida Keys.

Moderate to fresh SE flow will set up across the western Gulf 
today ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas 
tonight. This front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico, 
Mexico by Mon night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will move off 
the Texas coast early Tue, merging with the stationary front, 
then reaching from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico Tue 
night. The western portion will stall Tue night and then drift 
northwest through midweek. The eastern portion will continue SE, 
reaching from S Florida to the central Gulf by late Wed. 


A 1015 mb low centered just north of western Cuba near 23N83W
extends a trough to 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are near the Isle of Youth, generally between 81W-84W. Another
surface trough extends from 18N83W to southern Belize. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 16N-19N between 84W-88W.

The SW end of a stationary front goes through the SE Bahamas and
ends over eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are seen in the area
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba as well as in the Windward

The monsoon trough near Panama is bringing scattered moderate 
convection to the far SW Caribbean south of 10N between 76W-82W, 
and over Panama. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible in the 
northwest Caribbean, especially along the surface trough located 
just north of Honduras. Strong high pressure building N of the 
area is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast of 
Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through 
early Tue.


A stationary front enters the forecast area near 32N58W and
continues to a 1016 mb low near 30N66W. The stationary front
continues to a 1015 mb low near 26N70W, and continues to the SE
Bahamas near 22N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of a line 
extending from 23N73W to 25N65W to 28N62W. Scattered moderate 
convection is also noted from 28N-32N between 57W-66W. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are possible elsewhere along the front.

A second cold front passes through the west coast of the country 
of Western Sahara near 23N16W to 22N19W to 21N25W. A surface
trough continues from that point westward to 20N36W. Scattered
moderate convection is located north of 23N and east of 24W, and 
this activity is moving SE toward the country of Western Sahara. 
Long period NW swell in excess of 15 ft are affecting the entire 
NE Atlantic north of 18N and east of 35W, including the Maderia 
and Canary Islands.

Relatively quiet weather is over the central subtropical Atlantic
due to a 1022 mb surface high near 27N55W and a 1023 mb surface
high near 28N44W.

Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly 
within 120 nm NW of the stationary front over the western 
Atlantic through today before diminishing. The front will remain 
nearly stationary through Tue. Then, a reinforcing cold front 
will reach the north waters off the SE coast of the United 
States on Wed, and will help the stationary front to transition 
to a cold front moving eastward. 

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