000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Dec 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains of 
Sierra Leone close to 08N13W, to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N22W, to 02N30W, to the Equator along 35W, to 01S38W.  
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the 
satellite imagery.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb 32N72W low 
pressure center, through 30N76W, to Florida along 28N, into the 
Gulf of Mexico close to 28N86W. The front becomes stationary 
there, and it continues to 27N96W, off the coast of Texas. A 
Texas coastal plains 1022 mb low pressure center is close to 
26N97W. A warm front extends northward from the 1022 mb low 
pressure center. A cold front extends from the 1022 mb low 
pressure center, to 24N96W, and inland to 23N99W. Precipitation in
the Gulf of Mexico:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and rainshowers, are from
92W westward. Strong to near gale-force E winds, and rough seas in
E swell, are from 20N to 28N between 83W and 97W. Fresh NE winds
are from 25N northward from 90W eastward. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front reaching from Tampa Bay, Florida to near Brownsville,
Texas will diminish over the Gulf through early Wed. High 
pressure building north of the front over the southeastern United 
States will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the S Gulf
through tonight. Fresh to strong SE return flow will prevail in 
the western Gulf into Wed night, accompanied by rough seas and 
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, a weak cold 
front will reach the northern Gulf coast Thu, then move across the
northern Gulf into Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, are from 25N
in the SE Gulf of Mexico southward, from Jamaica westward. Strong
NE winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere from 15N northward 
between 74W and 77W. Strong to near gale-force winds, and moderate
seas, are in the remainder of the areas that are from 10N to 13N
between 73W and 76W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and
moderate seas, are from 73W eastward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 04/0000 UTC, are: 0.12 in Guadeloupe. This information is from 
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure building north of the region will support fresh to 
strong NE winds and rough seas over most of the northwest 
Caribbean and Windward Passage through Wed night. The high 
pressure will weaken and shift eastward Thu, allowing winds and 
seas to diminish, although fresh to strong NE winds will persist 
south of Cuba and near the Cayman Islands into Sat. Farther south,
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will pulse off 
Colombia into the weekend. NE swell will lead to seas of 8 to 10 
ft for Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1020 mb 32N72W low pressure center,
through 30N76W, to Florida along 28N, into the Gulf of Mexico
close to 28N86W. The front becomes stationary there, and it
continues to 27N96W, off the coast of Texas. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery in
the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N52W to 25N64W. The front is 
stationary from 25N64W, to the SE Bahamas, to the Windward 
Passage. A surface trough is along 24N64W 21N68W, to the SE 
Dominican Republic, to 17N70W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
rainshowers are within 120 nm on the NW side of the frontal
boundary, within 60 nm on the SE side of the frontal boundary, and
within 30 nm on either side of the surface trough. A 1032 mb high
pressure center is close to 37N21W. Broad surface anticyclonic
wind flow is from 08N northward from 60W eastward, and to the east
of the frontal boundary. Strong to near gale-force NW to N winds,
and rough seas, are from 28N northward between 73W and 80W. Expect
strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, 
elsewhere 20N to 24N between 68W and 79W. 

Strong NE to E winds, and rough seas in NE to E swell, are from 
06N to 28N between 35W and 61W. Moderate NE winds, and moderate
seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas follow a cold 
front reaching from weak low pressure near 32N72W to Cape 
Canaveral, Florida. A second, weaker front reaches from the north-
central Atlantic through 31N55W to the Windward Passage. Strong N
to NE winds and rough seas are active west of this front south of
22N from the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba. The fronts will 
merge and reach from 31N52W to north-central Hispaniola by late 
Wed, then stall and dissipate west off 55W through Thu. High 
pressure builds in behind the front, strong NE winds will continue
south of 22N, offshore Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through Wed 
night. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into northern 
waters Thu into Fri, bringing large NW swell to the waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda north of 28N through the end of the
week.

$$
mt/ec