AXNT20 KNHC 222102
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will
emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Gale-force southerly winds
are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N
of 29N between 65W and 80W, Fri through Sat. Rough to very rough
seas will follow the front.
All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan
accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to
02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 01S46W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 05W and 24W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
southerly return flow is found W of 94W. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere, except for over the SE Gulf where gentle winds
are noted. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-4
For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward ahead of the next
cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas coast tonight. Fresh
to strong southerly winds are ahead of the front over the western
Gulf. The front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to
near Brownsville, Texas by Fri morning, and will be over the south
waters on Sat morning, extending across the Straits of Florida to
near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be
expected behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high
pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat through
early next week.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail between 66W and 82W.
Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range in the SW Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will return to the south-
central Caribbean by Fri night and persist through the weekend,
but mainly at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean by
Sat afternoon, and extend from eastern Cuba to the coast of
Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W on Sun.
A cold front extends from 31N57W to 24N58W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the front.
Fresh to strong winds, locally near gale, and rough seas to 10 ft
are noted on either side of the front. A 1007 mb low is centered
near 29N65W, with a trough extending SW to near the southern
Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
within 120 nm N semicircle of the low. Fresh to strong winds, and
seas of 8-11 ft, are noted within 120 nm W of the trough.
Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong, are between the trough
and the cold front. Light to gentle winds are W of 75W. Elsewhere
W of 60W, seas of 6-8 ft prevail. Farther east, high pressure
prevails across the waters N of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are
noted from 10N to 22N between 22W and 35W, with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere E of 60W. Seas of 6-9 ft generally prevail
For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N56W
to 20N58W by Fri morning while dissipating. A frontal trough will
remain in the area on Sat, and drift westward toward the Leeward
Islands on Sun. Winds and seas associated with this system will
improve by Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off
the Florida coast on Fri. Gale force southerly winds are expected
ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N of 29N and W
of 65W, Fri through Sat. Rough to very rough seas will follow the
front, forecast to extend from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida
on Sat, and from 31N62W to eastern Cuba on Sun.