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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 211737

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1735 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure building 
southward over the western Atlantic and lower pressures inland 
over Colombia will enable winds to pulse to gale force at night, 
over the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is forecast in 36 hours over the central Atlantic 
from 31N40W to 29N65W. A gale is forecast N of 27N E of 40W with 
seas 16 to 21 ft. 


The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near 
06N10W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N23W, and 
onward to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is from 05S to 04N between 20W and 30W. 


A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N91W to 27N95W
to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Southwesterly winds of 10 to 
20 kt and scattered showers are occurring on the N side of the 
front. Mainly 5 to 15 kt southeasterly winds cover the remainder 
of the Gulf. Overcast low stratus and patchy fog is W of the 
front, especially near the Texas and Louisiana coastline. 

The front will lift back north as a warm front during the late
morning today. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast 
late Sat, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by Sun 
evening and from near SW Florida to near 25N89W to the SW Gulf 


Widespread fair weather prevails across the Caribbean region 
supported by dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the 
atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and 
perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind 
flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean, 
while mainly moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of 
the Caribbean. 

High pressure northeast of the region will maintain fresh to 
strong trade winds mainly within the central Caribbean Sea, and 
north of Honduras through the next several days. Gale force winds 
will pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia. Long period north
to northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters to 
the east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late today before 
dissipating Sun through Mon night.


The most notable feature over the subtropical Atlantic is a cold 
front that enters the discussion area near 26N35W and extends
through 21N55W, onward to 23N56W. A line of clouds and likely 
embedded showers accompany the frontal boundary, diminishing in
frequency west of 45W. Scatterometer data show a fairly large 
region of 20-25 kt winds north of the boundary to 32N, with 
stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions are quiet 
over the eastern and tropical Atlantic, supported by surface high
pressure centered north of the region, as well as dry air aloft. 

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge will extend along 28N today as high 
pressure currently over Bermuda shifts southward. The center of 
the high pressure will shift E and weaken Fri to between Bermuda 
and the northern Bahamas, ahead of a cold front moving into the 
central Atlantic. The western end of the front will stall and 
dissipate from 25N65W to 31N70W through Sat. Another front will 
move off the NE Florida coast Sun night, before stalling and 
weakening along 27N through Mon.

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