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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000 AXNT20 KNHC 191740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1240 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the western Gulf of Mexico... A strong cold front has entered the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning, and should move quickly southeastward across the basin through the weekend. Strong northerly winds are already occurring west of the front, and will reach gale-force near Tampico this afternoon and near Veracruz tonight. Strong winds will taper off across the basin by sunrise on Monday. ...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic... Southerly winds are expected to increase over portions of the western Atlantic Saturday afternoon ahead of the cold front that will be moving over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will push off the Florida coast Sunday morning, then reach from 31N68W to central Cuba Sunday night, from 26N65W to northern Haiti Monday afternoon, then become stationary from 22N65W to the Dominican Republic Tuesday night. Gale force winds will be possible on either side of the front north of 28N and west of 60W on Sunday through Monday. Seas will build to near 20 feet in northwest swell behind the front near 31N65W on Tuesday. ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to gale-force along the immediate coast of Colombia each night. For additional information on all of these warning areas, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Sierra Leone near 05N10W and extends to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the northwestern portion of the basin, extending from 30N93W to 27N97W then continues across northern Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 29N93W to 27N95W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed along this trough. Winds are expected to reach gale-force this afternoon. Refer to the section above for more details. The front will extend from 30N85W to 25N88W to 19N92W by tonight, then exit from the Gulf Sunday morning. This will allow strong winds to taper off across the basin by sunrise on Monday. High pressure ridging over the Gulf from the north will shift east and allow strong southerly return flow to develop over the basin by early next week. Another strong cold front could enter the northwest Gulf by Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean. Only typical patches of low clouds and some embedded showers exist across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the waters near the Cayman Islands. The trade winds are strongest near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through mid week. The winds will increase to gale-force along the immediate coast of Colombia tonight and Saturday night, and then again each night through this period also. Refer to the section above for more details. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean on Sunday morning, push east and extend from Haiti to Nicaragua on Monday night, then stall and weaken on Tuesday. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas to 8 ft are expected west of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends east of the Bahamas from 28N71W to 24N72W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm east of the trough. To the east, a 1016 mb low is centered near 28N59W. A surface trough extends from 35N54W to the low to 25N59W. Scattered moderate convection prevails with these features between 51W-56W. Another trough extends from 29N49W to 22N53W with scattered moderate convection. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 34N28W. Weak surface ridging in the west Atlantic will drift eastward toward Bermuda today. Southerly winds will strengthen this afternoon through Sunday morning east of Florida ahead of a strong cold front. The front will push off the Florida coast early on Sunday, then reach from 31N68W to central Cuba by Sunday night, from 26N65W to northern Haiti on Monday afternoon, then become stationary from 22N65W to northern Dominican Republic by Tuesday night. Gale-force winds will be possible on either side of the front. Refer to the section above for details. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds to the north of the front. Winds will subside by mid-week as the front weakens and high pressure shifts east. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA