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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 220605

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure over the
Atlantic building southward over the western Atlantic and low 
pressures inland over Colombia will enable winds to pulse to 
gale force at night, over the next few days. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center 
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is forecast in 24 hours to enter the central 
Atlantic from 31N30W to 27N38W. A Gale Warning is in effect for 
the area N of 30N between 37W-40W, with seas 16 to 20 ft. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at 
website for further 


The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near 
05N09W to 00N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the 
coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted within 250 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-30W. 


A stationary front extends from the coast of Louisiana near 29N92W
to a 1010 mb surface low centered near 27N95W. A surface trough 
extends south of the low pressure to the Bay of Campeche near
22N95W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds are prevailing 
across most of the basin while light to gentle winds prevail 
south of the low/front. A second surface trough near 22N89W  
extends south into the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant 
convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough. 

The 1010 mb low pressure will dissipate on Fri as the front 
transitions to a warm front that moves inland by early Fri 
evening. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on Sat 
afternoon, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by 
Sun evening, from near SW Florida the SW Gulf of Mexico on Mon 
then become stationary and weaken through Tue night. Areas to 
patches of dense fog are possible at night and into the morning 
hours through Fri near the outermost boundary of the NW and N 
Central waters. 


Fair weather prevails across the basin supported by dry air in 
the mid-and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images do 
show patches of low clouds and perhaps embedded isolated showers 
moving within the trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are
over the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds cover 
the remainder of the basin. 

High pressure northeast of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds mainly within the central Caribbean, and north of 
Honduras through the next several days. Gale-force winds will 
pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia. Long period north to 
northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters to the 
east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late today before dissipating
Sun through Monday night.


Surface ridging extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a 
1027 mb high near 29N60W. To the east, a cold front enters the 
discussion area near 31N30W and extends through 27N38W. A
stationary front extends from 31N24W to 21N39W, then transitions 
to dissipating stationary front to 18N53W. No significant 
convection is related to this front at this time. Scatterometer 
data show a fairly large region of fresh winds north of the front 
to 30N, then stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions 
are quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic, supported by 
surface high centered north of the region, as well as dry air 

High pressure over the area will slide eastward and weaken 
through Sat in response to an approaching cold front. The front 
will move across the northwest part of the area Sun night, then 
reach from near 31N69W to 27N76W and to S Florida by Mon afternoon
and become stationary from near 25N65W to S Florida Tue. Strong 
high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong 
east winds to the northern and central waters Tue and Tue night.

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