AXNT20 KNHC 220605
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...
A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure over the
Atlantic building southward over the western Atlantic and low
pressures inland over Colombia will enable winds to pulse to
gale force at night, over the next few days. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...Atlantic Gale Warning...
A cold front is forecast in 24 hours to enter the central
Atlantic from 31N30W to 27N38W. A Gale Warning is in effect for
the area N of 30N between 37W-40W, with seas 16 to 20 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near
05N09W to 00N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 250 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from the coast of Louisiana near 29N92W
to a 1010 mb surface low centered near 27N95W. A surface trough
extends south of the low pressure to the Bay of Campeche near
22N95W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds are prevailing
across most of the basin while light to gentle winds prevail
south of the low/front. A second surface trough near 22N89W
extends south into the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant
convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough.
The 1010 mb low pressure will dissipate on Fri as the front
transitions to a warm front that moves inland by early Fri
evening. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on Sat
afternoon, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by
Sun evening, from near SW Florida the SW Gulf of Mexico on Mon
then become stationary and weaken through Tue night. Areas to
patches of dense fog are possible at night and into the morning
hours through Fri near the outermost boundary of the NW and N
Fair weather prevails across the basin supported by dry air in
the mid-and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images do
show patches of low clouds and perhaps embedded isolated showers
moving within the trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are
over the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds cover
the remainder of the basin.
High pressure northeast of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds mainly within the central Caribbean, and north of
Honduras through the next several days. Gale-force winds will
pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia. Long period north to
northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters to the
east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late today before dissipating
Sun through Monday night.
Surface ridging extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1027 mb high near 29N60W. To the east, a cold front enters the
discussion area near 31N30W and extends through 27N38W. A
stationary front extends from 31N24W to 21N39W, then transitions
to dissipating stationary front to 18N53W. No significant
convection is related to this front at this time. Scatterometer
data show a fairly large region of fresh winds north of the front
to 30N, then stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions
are quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic, supported by
surface high centered north of the region, as well as dry air
High pressure over the area will slide eastward and weaken
through Sat in response to an approaching cold front. The front
will move across the northwest part of the area Sun night, then
reach from near 31N69W to 27N76W and to S Florida by Mon afternoon
and become stationary from near 25N65W to S Florida Tue. Strong
high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong
east winds to the northern and central waters Tue and Tue night.
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