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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 160536

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0520 UTC.


...Tropical Depression Fifteen...

The center of Tropical Depression Fifteen, at 16/0300 UTC, is 
near 16.8N 23.7W. This position also is about 50 nm/95 km to the 
NNE of The Cabo Verde Islands. The Tropical Depression is moving 
WNW, or 300 degrees, 09 knots. The estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 
knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm of the center in 
the NE semicircle. Possible hazards that may affect land: The 
depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 
of 1 inch to 3 inches, across the eastern and northern Cabo 
Verde Islands through Wednesday. It is possible that this 
rainfall may cause flash flooding and mudslides. It is possible 
that tropical storm-force wind gusts may occur in the eastern 
Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday, especially in areas of 
high terrain. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for T.D. FIFTEEN are 
available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS 
available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS 
header MIATCMAT5.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A trough of low pressure that is in southern Mexico is producing 
disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms in southeastern 
Mexico, in Guatemala, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of 
Mexico. This area of weather, and another tropical system that 
is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, are expected to produce heavy 
rains in parts of southern Mexico and Central America during the 
next couple of days. It is possible the rain may cause flooding 
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. The area of low 
pressure is forecast to move into the SW corner of the Gulf of 
Mexico, and turn northward gradually, by late Wednesday.
Some gradual development is possible, after the disturbance 
moves over water. It is possible that a tropical cyclone or a 
subtropical cyclone may form later this week, in the western 
Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more 


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 10N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate from 10N southward between 30W and 34W. Monsoon trough-
related widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N 
southward between 20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/55W, from 17N 
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 18N between 48W and 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N 
southward, moving W 15 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is 
cutting across the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate in the Gulf of Venezuela. 


The monsoon trough is inland, in Africa. The ITCZ is along 
05N33W 05N44W 08N52W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 
180 nm N of the ITCZ, and within 90 nm S of the ITCZ.


A stationary front extends from the coastal waters of South 
Carolina and Georgia, to the Florida Panhandle. The front 
becomes a warm front from the Florida Panhandle, to northern 
Louisiana. Isolated moderate to locally strong in the coastal 
plains and interior sections of Florida from 82W westward and 
northwestward, and off the coast of SE Louisiana. Isolated 
moderate within 180 nm to the west of NW Cuba.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, 
along 23N91W 20N93W 17N94W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to 
locally strong from 23N southward between 90W and 96W. 

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of 

Broad low pressure in the Yucatan Peninsula, in the SW Gulf of 
Mexico and in southern Mexico, gradually will shift NW through 
late Thursday. Expect squalls and thunderstorms to the SW Gulf 
of Mexico. Gentle to moderate return flow will prevail across 
the basin through tonight, ahead of the next cold front, that is 
expected to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. 
The front will extend from 28N82W to 27N90W to Tampico, Mexico 
by Thursday morning. The front will extend from 26N82W to 26N86W 
by Friday, where it will transition to a warm front as low 
pressure develops near 25N94W. The low pressure center is 
expected to move NE toward the mouth of the Mississippi River, 
from Friday through Saturday, with strong to near gale force 
winds across E and NE parts of the low pressure center. Very 
active weather is expected across the basin with this front and 
low pressure system.  


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about 
the heavy rainfall event, that currently is occurring in Central 
America and the southwest Caribbean Sea.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean 
Sea to the west of the line that runs from the easternmost part 
of Hispaniola to the western sections of Panama.

An upper level trough passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic 
Ocean, through the Mona Passage, to 14N73W in the central 
Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW 
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 74W 
westward, with an upper level inverted trough. The monsoon 
trough passes through northern sections of Colombia, and across 
Panama and northern parts of Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate from 10N southward from 80W westward.

Broad low pressure, across Central America and the southern Gulf 
of Mexico, will yield moderate to fresh SE winds in the NW 
Caribbean Sea throughout the week. Moderate to locally fresh 
trade winds are expected elsewhere across the rest of the basin 
through the period. An active tropical wave will move across the 
tropical Atlantic waters tonight and Wednesday, across the 
Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and the eastern Caribbean Sea 
on Friday. 


An upper level trough is near 32N61W, to 26N62W, to 22N65W, 
beyond the Mona Passage, and into the Caribbean Sea. A surface 
trough is along 31N61W 25N66W 20N67W. Precipitation: widely 
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 20N 
northward between 50W and 62W.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the area W of 65W through 
early Thursday. A cold front is expected to enter the NW 
forecast waters on Thursday morning. Fresh to near gale force SW 
winds are expected across the NW waters N of 29N ahead of the 
front, from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The cold front 
will reach from near Bermuda to just N of Freeport, Bahamas to 
the east coast of Florida near 26N80W early on Thursday night, 
and move east of the area by Saturday.