000
AXNT20 KNHC 171755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N17W and 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N21W, to 05N26W 02N33W, to the Equator along 39W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 12W and 18W; within 70 nm to the south of
the ITCZ between 24W and 26W; and from 06N to 08N between 28W and
32W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the coast of South
America to 10N between 50W and 60W; and from the Equator southward
between 40W and 50W. This precipitation is close to an upper 
level NW-to-SE oriented trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in Florida along 28N. A warm front extends
from a 1006 mb south central Louisiana low pressure center, to 
close to the Florida Panhandle, toward the Florida west coast
along 28N. A cold front extends from the same Louisiana 1006 mb
low pressure center, to the Deep South of Texas, into NE Mexico.
The front continues northwestward, in interior Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 26N northward from 90W westward. A 1001 mb low pressure
center is near 22N96W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is from
25N102W, through the 1001 mb low pressure center, to NE Honduras.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the 
satellite imagery.

Areas of haze and smoke are covering most of the western half of
the Gulf of Mexico including in the coastal plains of Mexico; and
in the NW Caribbean Sea including in the Gulf of Honduras. Many 
of the visibilities are in the MVFR category. Some of the 
visibilities are in the IFR category. Agricultural fires have been
in Mexico and in Central America during the last few weeks.

Fresh to strong SE winds, and moderate to rough seas, have been 
in the NW corner of the area from Honduras northward from 80W 
westward, and through the Yucatan Channel, into the SE Gulf of 
Mexico. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are in the areas that
are to the south of the frontal boundaries. Slight to moderate 
seas are spread throughout the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A warm front extends from near Tampa, Florida to near Mobile, 
Alabama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the western 
Gulf from 26N to 30N west of 94W. The front will continue to lift 
northward and inland through this afternoon, with strong 
thunderstorms ahead of it. A stationary front is across the Texas 
coastal waters and will meander there today before shifting 
eastward across the northern Gulf tonight through Mon, supported 
by a series of upper-level disturbances moving from W to E. This 
will maintain active weather over the northern Gulf through most 
of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will 
dominate the basin, except pulsing to locally strong near the 
Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds
will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure 
gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke due to 
agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western 
Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong SE winds, and moderate to rough seas, have been 
in the NW corner of the area from Honduras northward from 80W 
westward, and through the Yucatan Channel, into the SE Gulf of 
Mexico. Fresh to strong easterly winds are from 16N southward 
between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the 
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are in the eastern 
one-third of the area. Moderate seas are in much of the rest of 
the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight seas between 
Jamaica and Cuba; in the coastal waters of Nicaragua; and within 
130 nm to the south of the Dominican Republic between 70W and its 
border with Haiti.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and
central Costa Rica. The monsoon trough continues northwestward,
beyond the coastal waters/the coastal plains of Central America,
toward the coastal waters of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
rainshowers are from 14N southward from 75W westward.

A weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 24N into 
the central Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient is 
supporting fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras and 
fresh to locally strong E winds in the south central Caribbean. 
Strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun, 
reaching near gale-force Fri evening into Sat morning and again 
Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf 
of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night. Gentle to 
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. 
Meanwhile, smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America 
continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and is 
reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 31N66W,
to 28N75W, to the Florida along 28N. Precipitation: scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is from 90 nm to 240 nm to the 
southeast of the cold front from 74W eastward. The 24-hour 
rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 17/1200 
UTC, are: 1.35 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.17 in Bermuda. 
This information is from the Pan American Temperature and 
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from the stationary front northward between 77W and 82W.

A surface trough is along 31N44W 25N50W 23N60W 22N65W, to the 
western part of Puerto Rico. Precipitation: rainshowers are to the
north of the surface trough.

A surface ridge is along 14N47W 23N37W 31N35W. An upper level 
trough is generating cyclonic wind flow and rainshowers, that
are from 20N northward from 30W eastward.

Moderate seas cover nearly the entire Atlantic Ocean. An 
exception is for slight seas from 29N73W 27N66W from 60W westward;
and roughly from 17N to 29N between 30W and 44W. Fresh NE winds
are 06N to 17N between 30W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front extends from 31N67W southwestward to the NW 
Bahamas and westward to inland central Florida near Melbourne. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the front
to near 61W and north of 26N. The cold front will move slowly 
eastward, and shift east of 55W by Mon. Active weather is expected
to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Fresh southerly winds
ahead of the front will continue through Fri afternoon, then 
become moderate Fri night through Sat afternoon, then diminish 
further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are 
expected through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W 
roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the 
waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon and move 
southeastward and weaken through Tue. 

$$
mt/ja