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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


521 
AXNT20 KNHC 101814
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Feb 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between an Atlantic
Ocean 32N35W 1028 mb high pressure center and lower surface
pressures that are in Colombia, continues to support strong to
near gale-force winds, between the Mona Passage and western
Jamaica, in the Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds will pulse to 
gale-force during the late night and early morning hours, in the 
offshore waters of Colombia, for the next few days. Expect rough 
seas, to a maximum of 12 feet.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

Mostly fresh, to some fresh-to-strong NE to E winds are elsewhere
from the Mona Passage eastward. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
are elsewhere from the western sections of Jamaica westward. 
Rough seas are from 16N southward between 69W and 78W. Moderate 
seas cover much of the remainder of the Caribbean Sea from 80W 
eastward. Some exceptions are for slight to moderate seas, in the 
coastal waters that are from Guadeloupe southward, in the coastal 
waters of Venezuela, and in the coastal waters of the countries of
Central America, and elsewhere from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of NW
Liberia, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W, to 02N26W,
to the Equator along 31W, to 01S42W. Precipitation: widely 
scattered to scattered moderate/isolated strong is from 08N 
southward from 54W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the Florida Panhandle, to SE
Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Rainshowers are
possible from 25N northward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds
are from the cold front northward.

A surface ridge is along 26N94W, beyond 28N in Florida, beyond
28N70W in the Atlantic Ocean. Broad surface anticyclonic wind 
flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, away from the 
cold front. 

Moderate or slower anticyclonic winds, and slight seas, cover the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure centered NE of the area will dominate much of the 
week. The ridge will shift east later this week, allowing a cold 
front to enter the NW Gulf late this week. Southerly winds will 
strengthen in the central Gulf midweek ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering the coastal waters of
Colombia. The warning period starts tonight. It stops on Tuesday
morning, and it starts again from Tuesday night until Wednesday
morning.

Mostly fresh, to some fresh-to-strong NE to E winds are elsewhere
from the Mona Passage eastward. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
are elsewhere from the western sections of Jamaica westward. 
Rough seas are from 16N southward between 69W and 78W. Moderate 
seas cover much of the remainder of the Caribbean Sea from 80W 
eastward. Some exceptions are for slight to moderate seas, in the 
coastal waters that are from Guadeloupe southward, in the coastal 
waters of Venezuela, and in the coastal waters of the countries of
Central America, and elsewhere from 80W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 10/1200 UTC, are: 0.23 in Curacao; 0.09 in San Juan in Puerto 
Rico; and 0.02 in Trinidad. This information is from the Pan 
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic and low pressure focused over northwestern 
Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force each night and 
early morning offshore of Colombia through Thu night. Rough to 
very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest 
winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected 
across the remainder southwestern and central Caribbean into the 
weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward 
Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Moderate 
to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the remainder of the
basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the Windward and 
Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea 
through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 10/1200 UTC, are: 0.37 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This 
information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from the Equator to 27N from 60W 
eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the 
Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 20N northward from 50W 
eastward. Moderate seas are from 20N northward from 50W westward. 
Moderate to rough seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N into the 
weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through 
late week. East swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward 
Islands and NE of Puerto Rico through the weekend. 

$$
mt/al