AXNT20 KNHC 281756
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front stretches westward
from western Cuba, passing just north of the Yucatan Peninsula to
the southwestern Gulf near 21N95W, then curves southward to near
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm along either side of the
front west of 90W. East of 90W, widely scattered showers are seen
up to 80 nm along either side of the front. Enhanced by a 1026 mb
high near Tampico Mexico, tight gradient is supporting near- gale
to gale NW winds and 12 to 14 ft seas offshore of Veracruz. As
another 1030 mb high currently over eastern Texas moves east-
southeastward later afternoon and evening, it should cause the
front to sink southward as a cold front. In response, winds and
seas across the southwestern Gulf should gradually subside. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra Leone
border, then extends southwestward to 04N25W. An ITCZ continues
from 04N25W to 04N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
and south of the trough from 02N to 08N between the Sierra
Leone-Liberia coast and 17W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is found up to 90 nm north, and 240 nm south of the rest of the
trough and ITCZ.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean
waters just offshore from the Costa Rica-Panama border.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Other than the stationary front mentioned in the Special Features
section, a broad surface ridge is dominating the rest of the
Gulf. Fresh to strong N to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are
found at the west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and 3
to 5 ft seas are present just offshore from Texas and Louisiana.
Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, most the front is going to exit the basin later
this afternoon, while the western portion across the southern Bay
of Campeche will dissipate tonight into Wed morning. Conditions
across the Gulf will improve on Wed. Strong southerly flow will
set up across the northern Gulf by Wed night ahead of the next
approaching front that will push off the Texas coast on Fri.
The Mid-Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1019 mb
high near 34N48W to the central Bahamas. This feature is
supporting a trade-wind pattern across much of the basin.
Convergent trades are generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from near the Honduras-Nicaragua border to
near Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas of
7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin, north of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
are noted just south of the Mona and Windward Passages. Moderate
with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the Mid-Atlantic ridge will shift eastward as a
cold front moves across the western Atlantic through Wed. Fresh
to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will
diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu. A stationary front currently
over western Cuba will sink into the NW Caribbean as a cold
front later this afternoon, bringing brief fresh to strong NE
winds behind it across the Yucatan Channel this evening. The
front will gradually stall from central Cuba to northern Belize by
tonight before dissipating later in the week.
A cold front extends southwestward from northeast of Bermuda
across 31N61W to the central Bahamas, then continues as a
stationary front to western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
seen near and up to 100 nm southeast of this boundary. Another
cold front curves southwestward from the Azores across 31N34W to
22N48W. Widely scattered showers are seen near this feature.
Farther east, a surface trough runs northward from 24N37W across a
1014 mb low near 26N34W to 30N33W. Interacting with a pronounced
Mid-Latitude trough near 27N36W, scattered moderate convection is
flaring up north of 21N between 26W and 38W. A surface trough is
producing scattered showers west of the Cabo Verde Islands from
11N to 17N between 28W and 37W.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to NW winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft dominate northwest of the first cold front, including
the northwest Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are present north of 20N between the Africa coast and 58W/first
cold front. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to
NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist from 08N to 20N between the
central Africa coast and 33W. To the west, light to gentle with
locally moderate NNE to ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident
from the Equator to 20N between 33W and the Lesser Antilles. Light
to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder
of the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast W of 55W, winds ahead of the first front with
moderate seas will diminish today. The front will stretch from
near 31N56W to central Cuba by Wed morning, and reach from 31N51W
to eastern Cuba by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds will
persist behind the front through Wed. The front will briefly
become stationary along 23N Thu as high pressure shifts eastward
into the Atlantic behind it. Winds across the area will veer E to
SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the high
pressure moves east of Bermuda.