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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 071729

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 09N13W to 
03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to 01S46W along coastal 
Brazil.  Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is 
located east of 05W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N to 
07N between 15W and 22W.  


A cold front extends from the Florida peninsula near 27N82W to 
the W Gulf near 23N96W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the 
Florida Keys in the Gulf west-southwestward to 24N87W. Winds are 
light to gentle south of the front and moderate northeasterlies 
north of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft across the Gulf.  Scattered 
showers exist within 60 nmi of the front and the trough. SAB 
analysis of satellite imagery indicates light to medium smoke 
south of 27N and west of 90W in the Gulf of Mexico from 
agricultural and wildfires fires in southern Mexico. 

A cold front across the eastern Gulf will push southward east of 
90W through tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected 
in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky 
conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are 
likely across the SW Gulf for several more days. 


A 1025 mb Bermuda High has shifted east-southeastward to 28N44W 
in response to a cold front north of the Bahamas.  The reduced 
pressure gradient is forcing only fresh E trades north of 
Colombia and light to gentle E trades elsewhere across the 
Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central and E Caribbean and 
only 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection 
is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean associated with 
the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends from Costa Rica 
near 10N83W to 10N77W.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over 
most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across 
the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the 


West of 55W, a surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb Bermuda High 
west-southwestward to 25N77W. A cold front extends from 31N75W 
to the Florida peninsula at 26N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends 
from 28N78W to the Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted north of 27N between 75W and 78W. Elsewhere, scattered 
showers are occurring within 60 nmi of the front and the trough. 
SW winds north of 28N ahead of the front are fresh to strong, 
while NW winds north of 29N behind the front are also fresh to 
strong.  Elsewhere the trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 
to 5 ft north and east of the Bahamas and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N between 50W 
and 60W. 

The cold front will move across south Florida later today. The 
northern part of the front will shift eastward across the 
northern waters through Sat night. A cold front will move south 
of 30N into the waters east of Florida Tue night. 

East of 55W, a surface ridge extends between 1025 mb Bermuda 
High at 28N44W to 31N25W. NE to E trades south of the ridge are 
only moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 20N and 4 to 
7 ft south of 20N. No significant deep convection is occurring 
away from the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough. As the Bermuda High builds in 
place, trades will strengthen to fresh to strong Sat to Mon 
before relaxing again on Tue. Seas will increase slightly in 
response. On Mon and Tue a N swell will build seas north of 20N 
to 6 to 8 ft.