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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 171742

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade 
winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with
winds briefly increasing to gale-force over the NW coast of Colombia
this evening and tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website for further details.


A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa, with axis along 24W
from 04N-20N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07N-10N between 20W-28W.

A tropical wave extends from 30N33W to 20N30W, moving SW at 20 kt.
This is not an African easterly wave. This wave originated over 
the NE Atlantic. At this time, the wave is traveling through a dry
environment, and no convection is noted. 

A tropical wave is along 53W from 05N-24N, moving west at 10-15 
kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature on satellite
imagery. Scattered showers are over the northern portion of the
wave from 20N-23N between 52W-56W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 10N-24N, 
moving west at 15-20 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers 
around Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate 
convection is well E of the wave axis over the the Windward 
Islands from 08N-13N between 58W-64W, also due to surface

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 04N-21N, 
moving west at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is 
from 12N-18N between 80W-90W including the W Caribbean, and 
central America from Belize to S Nicaragua. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 15N17W
to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 03N40W to the coast of
South America near 02N50W. Besides the convection mentioned in 
the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is along
the coast of W Africa from 09N-13N between 16W-20W. 


Weak surface ridging is over the the northern Gulf of Mexico.  
Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf. 10-15 kt SE winds are over
the remainder of the Gulf. A trough is over the Bay of Campeche
with scattered moderate convection from 19N-24N between 93W-98W.
Isolated showers dots the E Gulf E of 90W, to include Florida and
W Cuba. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W. 

Expect the high pressure ridge to remain over the northern Gulf 
coast through Sun night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast 
winds will generally continue across the basin, except winds will 
be fresh to strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the 
evening and overnight hours.


Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the 
Gale Warning for the coast of N Colombia.

Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the waves 
traversing the Caribbean. 

Besides the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is S of W Cuba, and S of E Cuba. Scattered
showers are over Hispaniola and over W Jamaica. Scatterometer 
data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin, 
except between 75-82W where moderate to strong winds prevail. 

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong 
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast 
period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force along the Coast 
of Colombia this evening into early Thu. Locally strong trade 
winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras each night. A tropical wave
along 86W will exit the NW Caribbean early this evening. Another 
tropical wave along 65W will move across the rest of the eastern 
Caribbean through Thu, move across the central Caribbean Thu night
through Sat, then across the the western Caribbean Sat night 
through Sun night. Yet another tropical wave will move across the 
Tropical N Atlantic waters this afternoon through tonight and 
enter the far eastern Caribbean Thu. This wave will move across 
the rest of the eastern Caribbean through Fri, the central 
Caribbean Fri night through early Sun and the western Caribbean 
during Sun and Sun night.


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
waves traversing the basin. 

Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic
from 28N-31N between 74W-80W. Similar convection is over the
Straits of Florida from 23N-24N between 78W-80W. A 1023 mb high 
is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W. A large 1029 mb high
is centered over the Azores near 37N25W. 

Over the W Atlantic, a high pressure ridge along 29N/30N will 
maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Sun night. The 
high will be strong enough to generate fresh to strong E winds 
between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, primarily during 
the evening hours.

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