000
AXNT20 KNHC 042318
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A deep-layered upper trough extending
across the W Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will aid in 
strengthening of a low pressure currently located near 29N59W.
This system will move NE and exit the forecast waters Wed 
morning. Strong to minimal gale-force SW winds are expected 
ahead of this low pres this evening and tonight. Seas are 
forecast to build to 10 or 11 ft within these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National 
Hurricane Center at web-site 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: 
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday.
This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable
of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds
through Friday. Heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground
remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. Latest model
guidance indicates that the most significant precipitation are
expected over north-central Dominican Republic. There are also
indications that significant rainfall could occur over parts of
east and central Cuba where abundant moisture will linger through
the rest of the work-week. The rainfall over Hispaniola and Cuba
will be heavily influenced by diurnal heating and the local and 
effects. As a result, the heaviest rainfall will occur in the 
afternoon and evening hours each day. Please refer to products 
from your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
where the wave meets the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 25W and 
31W. 

A second tropical wave is near 38W from 11N southward, and 
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the 
southern end of the wave axis from 03N to 07N between 36W and 
40W. 

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 12N southward to
Suriname, moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is behind the wave axis from 05N to 08N between 50W and 55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15W then continues 
southwestward to 05N26W. The ITCZ extends from 05N26W to 05N36W
to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection can be found from 08N to 
11N between 15W and 20W, from 05N to 10N between 20W and 24W, and
from 04N to 08N between 40W and 50W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over parts of
Panama and regional waters, particularly S of 12N between 76W 
and 80W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1017 mb located near 31N72W extends a ridge
across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is 
resulting in moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft 
over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to 
3 ft seas over the eastern Gulf. Hazy conditions due to 
agricultural fires in southern Mexico persist across most of the
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, where medium 
concentration of smoke is noted on the smoke graphic recently 
issued by SAB. 

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends SW into the NE 
Gulf, and will dominate the basin through the next several days. 
This pattern will support generally moderate to fresh SE to S 
winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the 
Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf, and gentle to moderate 
winds in the eastern Gulf through late Wed. By Thu, the ridge 
will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat into the 
weekend. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central 
America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, 
reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the 
western half of the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event. 

As previously mentioned, a persistent upper-level trough is
helping to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms over
Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba, including also the 
Windward Passage and the regional waters between Haiti and 
Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the 
Lesser Antilles in a SE wind flow. 

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally 
strong SE winds over the eastern Caribbean where seas are 5 to 7
ft based on altimeter data. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate
winds are observed with seas of 3 to 5 ft over the central part
of the basin, and 1 to 3 ft over the NW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure extends across the western 
Atlantic along 31N-32N. A deep layered upper-level trough from 
the W Atlantic to the W Caribbean will continue to support active
thunderstorms across north-central portions through this evening.
As this feature moves E-NE across the Atlantic, associated 
weather will shift across the NE Caribbean this evening through 
Thu. Fresh trade winds will return to southeast portions of the 
basin Thu through Fri then shift into south central portions 
through the weekend, as high pressure builds across the western 
Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic. Please read the
Special Features section above for more information. 

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N36W then continues
westward to near 28N50W. A surface trough extends from 28N50W to
to a 1011 mb low pressure located near 29N59W to 25N70W to 
eastern Cuba. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is S and
E of the trough affecting mainly the waters N of 19N and W of 55W
to the trough axis. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms.
Divergent flow aloft is supporting this convective activity. 
High pressure of 1017 mb located near 31N72W dominates the 
remainder of the western Atlantic W of the above mentioned 
trough. Another high pressure system located over the central 
Atlantic is in control of the weather pattern across the rest of 
the forecast waters. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is 
noted E of 55W while moderate to fresh trades are blowing across
the tropical Atlantic. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a deep-layered upper trough across 
the W Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will shift E-NE across 
the region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between
55W and 70W, that will shift E and NE ahead of the trough. The 
feature will also aid in strengthening of the low pressure, which
will move NE and exit the area waters Wed morning. Strong to 
minimal gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of this low pres 
this evening as it moves across the NE waters. Weak high pressure
will begin to build across the basin Wed then shift slowly E-NE 
Thu through Fri night. A weak front will move into the far NW 
waters Sat and stall there Sun. 

$$ 
GR