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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 231725

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1710 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of 
Liberia near 06N11W to 04N13W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 
03N16W to 02N26W, crossing the Equator along 28W, to 02S38W, 
crossing the Equator again along 40W, to 02N50W near the coast 
of Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers have been in 
the coastal areas of Brazil, French Guyana, and Suriname from 
02N to 05N between 50W and 55W. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward from 60W 


Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is centered in Florida.
One 1022 mb high pressure center is in the Florida Panhandle. A 
second 1022 mb high pressure center is in N central Florida near 
29N82W. Broken high clouds are to the NW of the line that runs 
from 21N97W to 23N90W to 30N87W. Fair weather covers the 
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. 

High pressure will prevail across the area through Wednesday. 
The high pressure eventually will retreat eastward, ahead of a 
cold front that will be moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico 
on Thursday. The front will reach the far eastern Gulf of Mexico 
by Friday evening, where it will become stationary and weaken to 
a trough on Saturday. Scattered rainshowers with thunder are 
expected with this frontal system.


An upper level trough passes through the westernmost parts of 
the Atlantic Ocean, across the central Bahamas, across the SE 
part of Cuba, to the coast of Honduras. Upper level SW wind flow 
covers the Caribbean Sea to the south and southeast of the upper 
level trough. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the south 
central and eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then 
diminish slowly thereafter as high pressure north of the area 
weakens. It is possible that a cold front may move into the 
northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the 
week into next weekend.


A cold front is just to the west of Bermuda, passing through 
32N67W to 31N68W. The front is stationary from 31N68W to 25N72W. 
A surface trough continues from 25N72W to Great Inagua in the SE 
Bahamas, to 18N73W in SW Haiti. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm to 150 nm on either 
side of the line that passes through 32N66W to 28N68W to 22N72W 
to 21N74W, to Great Inagua.

A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 27N54W. An upper level 
cyclonic circulation center is present in water vapor imagery 
near 27N49W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 
20N northward between 33W and 63W. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N to 31N between 42W and 
50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N to 32N 
between 38W and 50W. 

The current stationary front and trough will dissipate gradually 
through today. A new cold front will move off the southeastern 
United States coast on Saturday. Scattered rainshowers with 
thunder, some with gusty winds, everything associated with this 
system, are expected to affect much of the area north of 27N 
from Friday through late Saturday.

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