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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000 AXNT20 KNHC 222359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gales expected near the coast of Colombia each night through at least Wednesday night. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warnings in the Gulf of Mexico and SW N Atlantic... A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Wed morning a few hours prior to sunrise, with gale force NW to N winds behind the front in the western Gulf from Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. As the front moves off the Florida coast into the SW N Atlantic, SW gale force winds are forecast on Thursday morning ahead of the front N of 29N and W of 74W with seas 10 to 16 feet. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gales Expected near the Coast of Morocco... Meteo France is forecasting gale force winds on Wednesday near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone called AGADIR. The Meteo France outlook for Thursday calls for the possibility of gales in AGADIR and TARFAYA. For additional information, please visit the Meteo France website at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 . ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N-06N between 29W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen near the NE coast of Brazil from 00N-03N W of 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1041 mb surface high centered over the Delmarva Peninsula extends a surface ridge southward over the Southeast U.S. into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system over the south-central U.S. and northern Mexico is being supported by a large amplitude mid-upper level trough over the central U.S. The pressure gradient in between the high and low pressure systems is currently inducing strong S winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are developing over Texas and NE Mexico ahead of a cold front, which is currently located over central Texas. At this time, only isolated showers are noted over the NW Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will move off the Texas coast early Wed morning, a few hours prior to sunrise. Showers are thunderstorms are likely over the Gulf of Mexico prior to and along with the frontal passage. NW-N gales are expected over the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday behind the front. See section above for more information. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu as the front moves southeast of the region. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N74W to the western tip of Jamaica near 18N79W. Isolated showers are seen over the NW Caribbean from 16N-20N between 74W-88W. Typical isolated trade winds showers cover portions of the eastern Caribbean E of 70W. At the middle and upper levels, anticyclonic flow covers the Caribbean Sea. However, at the surface, strong high pressure north of the area is inducing widespread fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean Sea. Expect strong NE to E winds across much of the Caribbean through Thursday, with gales pulsing off Colombia, as strong high pressure north of the area remains in place. See section above for more information. Expect seas well over 8 feet for large portions of the Caribbean Sea, highest from 10N-16N between 74W-80W, where 10-15 ft seas are expected. Farther east, large NW swell will move into Atlc waters off the Leeward Islands by Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of another cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu, and will stall and dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N53W to 24N60W to 22N66W. It continues as a stationary front from 22N66W to the Windward passage near 20N74W. A surface trough is just east of the front from 23N58W to 30N53W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen E of the front, N of 25N between 46W-54W. This convective activity is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence in the area. No significant convection is present south of 25N. However, strong winds around 25 kt and high seas currently cover most of the Atlantic to the north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles. Mid and upper level troughing covers the eastern Atlantic from 19N-32N, between 20W-41W. Two smaller upper-level lows are seen on satellite imagery embedded within the larger upper trough, one near 27N37W and the other near 31N29W. Scattered showers are seen east of the first upper low from 25N-29N between 30W-37W. Just south of the large trough, an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms has formed from 15N-19N between 26W-34W in an area that is favored for rising motion and thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted over the Atlantic. The cold front extending from near 22N65W to the Windward Passage will dissipate through Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through Wed before retreating eastward ahead of the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida early Thu. Gale force winds will prevail N of 29N ahead of the front Thu. See section above for details. The front will stall and weaken from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat. Low pres may develop along the front Sat near the northern Bahamas and move northeast. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen