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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 200547

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC. 


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W, to the
Equator along 22W, to 03N29W and 04N33W, continuing to 04N47W,
and to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. A surface trough is along
33W/36W, from 10N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N southward from 42W eastward.


Middle level to upper level W and SW wind flow spans the entire 

A cold front passes through southern Mississippi, to a 1016 mb
low pressure center that is near 28N94W. A cold front continues 
from the low pressure center, to 23N96W, and to the coast of 
Mexico near 23N98W. A stationary front continues inland, to
north central Mexico, near 30N105W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N northward between
86W and 94W, between the Florida Panhandle and the coastal waters
of Texas.

A N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 83W/84W from 26N to the
coast of NW Cuba. Rainshowers are possible within 30 nm on either
side of the trough.

The part of the current cold front that is to the N of the 1016 mb
low pressure center will continue to move E, and extend from 
Tampa Bay to 25N92W on Wednesday morning. The remainder of the 
front will stall in the adjacent waters of Mexico, with the tail 
reaching the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong north winds 
are forecast west of the front all the way to the Bay of Campeche 
starting tonight, and continuing through Wednesday morning. The 
stationary front then will drift northwestward to the NW Gulf of 
Mexico, where its remnants will transition to a surface low 
pressure center early on Thursday. The low pressure center will 
move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Friday, 
accompanied by fresh to strong winds. 


Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A middle
level inverted trough extends from the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, just off the coast of the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to Panama.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 75W in Colombia and 
beyond the waters that are along the southern part of Panama, 
beyond 84W at the southernmost point of Costa Rica, and beyond into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered strong rainshowers are along
the coast of Colombia from 77W eastward, along the coast of Panama
between 78W and 79W. Isolated moderate to strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 11N southward from 80W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that 
ended at 20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 
Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao. 

Strong surface high pressure north of the region will continue to
support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and the
gulf of Venezuela through Tue morning. Winds will diminish
briefly, as a front passes to the north of the area. The winds 
will return again on Tuesday night, and continue through Thursday 
morning as a new ridge builds north of the area. Mixed NE and E 
swell over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of
the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds 
will dominate the central and eastern waters the remaining of the 
forecast period. 


A cold front passes through 32N22W, curving to 30N30W and 27N40W.
A stationary front continues from 27N40W, to to a 1020 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N46W. The stationary front
continues to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 32N56W.
The stationary front continues to 30N67W, and to a 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 28N72W. The stationary front is
dissipating from 28N72W to 22N77W at the coast of SE Cuba.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the north of the line that
runs from 21N75W to 23N68W to 26N57W to 28N42W to 28N20W, 
beyond 30N10W at the coast of Morocco.

A developing cold front is along the eastern coast of the U.S.A.,
passing through 32N77W, to 29N80W, across Florida, to 27N83W in
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just off the western coast of Florida.
Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that runs
from 24N80W beyond 32N69W.

An upper level trough is digging through Morocco and Algeria,
through Mauritania, to 08N21W in the Atlantic Ocean. One surface
trough is inland in Africa, from Algeria to Mali to southern
Mauritania. A second surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along
23W/24W from 16N to 22N. Rainshowers are possible from 17N to 22N
between 20W and 28W. 

The remainder the current 32N67W-to-22N77W front is forecast to 
dissipate on Tuesday. The low pressure center will meander, and
then merge with a cold front, that will reach from near 31N67W to
25N73W on Tuesday evening and from near 29N65W to 27N69W on
Wednesday evening. Strong high pressure building behind this 
front will support fresh to near gale force NE to E winds and 
building seas to the N and NE of the Bahamas from Thursday night 
through Friday evening. These winds will veer to E-SE from Friday 
evening into Saturday morning, ahead of the next cold front to 
enter the NW waters on Saturday afternoon. Fresh to strong winds 
will prevail across the northern waters through Sunday.

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